Monday, August 10, 2009

Arbitration Files: Jorge Cantu

Over the next few days we'll be taking a look at the Florida Marlins that are due arbitration in the fall. First up is Marlins 1b/3b Jorge Cantu.

Jorge Cantu (Current 5th year salary - $3.5 million)

2008 - 155 G, 628 AB, 92 R, 28 HR, 95 RBI, .277/.327/.481 (.808)
2009 - 101 G, 394 AB, 42 R, 11 HR, 62 RBI, .277/.336/.434 (.770) (Aug. 10)
Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 152 G, 600 AB, 70 R, 18 HR, 90 RBI, .280/.340/.460 (.800)


Joe Crede
(5th year salary $4.94 M, 6th year $5.1 M). Came off injury from 07-08 so he got a nominal upgrade. He had a .828 OPS in year 4, which warranted him getting up to the $5 million range in year 5.

Casey Blake (5th year $3.75, 6th year $6.1). Blake had a .777 OPS in year 5, which lead to that salary in year 6. Cantu is going to match Blake’s year in a worst case scenario, probably get over it. This

Chad Tracy is making $5.75 this year (including buyout). He just sucks.

Bill Hall is going to make $6.8. But he also has the added positional flexibility, making him a ‘maybe’ comp, but we don’t have much to look for.

Longoria is going to make $6 million, in year 6. Wow. Zimmerman $8.9. Wright $10.

Some 1B for food for though. A. Gonzalez $5.5, Laroche and Overbay each $7, Pena $8. Youk $9. Morneau $10.6. Just not good comps here.

Alright, so that’s a good baseline. Crede did nothing in 2007, and got over $5. Blake did OK, and got over $6. Blake also had a $2.25M jump which is 60% of his previous contract value. The Tracy comp sucks for the Marlins. Cantu has to go above him based on his last two year, and immediate year, performance. So does he get to Blake? Depending on where his season line this year ends will dictate that question. The combination of not always at 3B may slot him a little higher as it seems 1B make more than 3B (or maybe they are just better, which is likely), but Cantu’s horrific defense could be a tie breaker and slot it down.

Low - $5.75. He gets Tracy’d.
Medium - $6.25. Over Blake. He is statistically better than him with more HR/RBI, and his lack of playing time in 2007 and defense don’t really hurt him.
High - $7. Atkins. He really, really, pounds the ball the last 50 games and gets to the .830 OPS/28 HR/100RBI level, and doesn’t commit to many of the mystical “errors.”

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