2006 - 18 G, 114.1 IP, 10-3, 2.83 era, 1.19 whip, 72 k
2007 - 6 G, 30 IP, 2-1, 4.80 era, 2.07 whip, 14 k
2008 - 10 G, 51.2 IP, 5.57 era, 1.57 whip, 50 K
2009 - 7 G, 35.2 IP, 5.55 era, 1.77 whip, 28 K
Career - 41 G, 40 S, 231 IP, 15-13, 4.12 era, 1.48 whip, 164 K
Reasonable Expectation Season Line - No freaking idea. But it doesn’t matter.
Apparently John Patterson is out of the contract system, but if I remember correctly after his ace like 2005 season with the Nationals (31 G, 198 IP, 3.13 era, 1.19 whip, 185K), he got $1.8 million. 2002-2004, he made 32 starts. So about 63 starts. Anibal has had nowhere near this success in games player, or starts. So this represents the “high” for sure.
So I’m trying to think of other injured starters that had underachieving fourth year arbitration figures as a result?
Sergio Mitre (year 4 $1.2 million)
2003-2006 - 51 G, 25 S, 5-15, about 160 IP, eyeballing a 5.8ish era, etc
2007 - 27 GS, 149 IP, 5-8, 4.65 era, 1.48 whip, 80 K.
Josh Johnson (year 4 $1.4 million)
2005-2007 - 39 G, 29 GS. 12-10, Had around 185 IP with a sub 3.50 era and 160 K or so.
2008 - 14 GS, 87.1 IP, 7-1, 3.61 era, 1.35 whip, 77 K.
So Anibal is around the same amount of games started here and service time as JJ, has 3/4s a year up in ERA pretty much, not as good whip stats, and slightly less Ks. Johnson is a great comp for Anibal. He can’t go over Johnson no matter what, which is good for us. But as we saw with stuff like Francouer making more money than Hermida, despite less stats, this season, the amount of games player factor is pretty strong in determining these. Anibal is going to go up similarly as a result. Mitre on the other hand, has a lot more playing time, but it’s his performance that really shot him down. Anibal has a slightly better career performance, but not as much playing time. So Mitre is also a good comp for the Marlins.
Low - $900,000. Lack of playing time and brutal 2007-2009 really hurt him. He does not come back this year.
Medium - $1,000,000. His career numbers are better than Mitre, but he’s played in 30 less games. Comes back and throws a few starts.
High - $1,250,000. His better stats make up the gap to Mitre’s more playing time. He’s going to need to throw at least 8-9 non horrible starts this year.