2007 - .870 OPS
2008 - 142 G, 502 AB, 74 R, 17 HR, 61 RBI, .249/.323/.406 (.729) / 4th year salary $2.3
2009 - 116 G, 391 AB, 43 R, 12 HR, 46 RBI, .258/.351/.391 (.742)
Reasonable Season Line Expectation - 145 G, 525 AB, 55 R, 16 HR, 60 RBI, .260/.340/.400 (.740)
Mark Teahen (5th year $3.5). Was coming off a really bad .715 OPS full season in year four. i.e., exactly what Hermida is doing now. A really bad fourth year.
This is a great comp, and I don’t think looking at others really matters. You can see “higher” comps looking at Cody, and I think it’s safe to say Hermida is not going to do that. So Teahen had 572 AB, 66 R, 15 HR, 59 RBI, and a .715 OPS, made the same money as Hermida made in year 4, and got a $1.2 million raise.
Hermida is basically doing that. This is going to be quick and dirty.
Low - $3. They bench him the rest of the year and doesn’t get the AB
Medium - $3.5. They play him, and he does exactly what he’s been doing
High - $4. He OPS’s .800+ and is totally sweet the rest of the year, to really bump the OPS R/RBI/HR points up significantly into the 75 R/RBI, 20 HR, .780+ OPS range. Very doubtful, but I’ll come back to this if Hermida decides to crush a lot.