Anibal Sanchez
2006 - 18 G, 114.1 IP, 10-3, 2.83 era, 1.19 whip, 72 k
2007 - 6 G, 30 IP, 2-1, 4.80 era, 2.07 whip, 14 k
2008 - 10 G, 51.2 IP, 5.57 era, 1.57 whip, 50 K
2009 - 7 G, 35.2 IP, 5.55 era, 1.77 whip, 28 K
Career - 41 G, 40 S, 231 IP, 15-13, 4.12 era, 1.48 whip, 164 K
Reasonable Expectation Season Line - No freaking idea. But it doesn’t matter.
Apparently John Patterson is out of the contract system, but if I remember correctly after his ace like 2005 season with the Nationals (31 G, 198 IP, 3.13 era, 1.19 whip, 185K), he got $1.8 million. 2002-2004, he made 32 starts. So about 63 starts. Anibal has had nowhere near this success in games player, or starts. So this represents the “high” for sure.
So I’m trying to think of other injured starters that had underachieving fourth year arbitration figures as a result?
Sergio Mitre (year 4 $1.2 million)
2003-2006 - 51 G, 25 S, 5-15, about 160 IP, eyeballing a 5.8ish era, etc
2007 - 27 GS, 149 IP, 5-8, 4.65 era, 1.48 whip, 80 K.
Josh Johnson (year 4 $1.4 million)
2005-2007 - 39 G, 29 GS. 12-10, Had around 185 IP with a sub 3.50 era and 160 K or so.
2008 - 14 GS, 87.1 IP, 7-1, 3.61 era, 1.35 whip, 77 K.
So Anibal is around the same amount of games started here and service time as JJ, has 3/4s a year up in ERA pretty much, not as good whip stats, and slightly less Ks. Johnson is a great comp for Anibal. He can’t go over Johnson no matter what, which is good for us. But as we saw with stuff like Francouer making more money than Hermida, despite less stats, this season, the amount of games player factor is pretty strong in determining these. Anibal is going to go up similarly as a result. Mitre on the other hand, has a lot more playing time, but it’s his performance that really shot him down. Anibal has a slightly better career performance, but not as much playing time. So Mitre is also a good comp for the Marlins.
Low - $900,000. Lack of playing time and brutal 2007-2009 really hurt him. He does not come back this year.
Medium - $1,000,000. His career numbers are better than Mitre, but he’s played in 30 less games. Comes back and throws a few starts.
High - $1,250,000. His better stats make up the gap to Mitre’s more playing time. He’s going to need to throw at least 8-9 non horrible starts this year.
Friday, August 21, 2009
Arbitration Files: Jeremy Hermida
Jeremy Hermida
2007 - .870 OPS
2008 - 142 G, 502 AB, 74 R, 17 HR, 61 RBI, .249/.323/.406 (.729) / 4th year salary $2.3
2009 - 116 G, 391 AB, 43 R, 12 HR, 46 RBI, .258/.351/.391 (.742)
Reasonable Season Line Expectation - 145 G, 525 AB, 55 R, 16 HR, 60 RBI, .260/.340/.400 (.740)
Mark Teahen (5th year $3.5). Was coming off a really bad .715 OPS full season in year four. i.e., exactly what Hermida is doing now. A really bad fourth year.
This is a great comp, and I don’t think looking at others really matters. You can see “higher” comps looking at Cody, and I think it’s safe to say Hermida is not going to do that. So Teahen had 572 AB, 66 R, 15 HR, 59 RBI, and a .715 OPS, made the same money as Hermida made in year 4, and got a $1.2 million raise.
Hermida is basically doing that. This is going to be quick and dirty.
Low - $3. They bench him the rest of the year and doesn’t get the AB
Medium - $3.5. They play him, and he does exactly what he’s been doing
High - $4. He OPS’s .800+ and is totally sweet the rest of the year, to really bump the OPS R/RBI/HR points up significantly into the 75 R/RBI, 20 HR, .780+ OPS range. Very doubtful, but I’ll come back to this if Hermida decides to crush a lot.
2007 - .870 OPS
2008 - 142 G, 502 AB, 74 R, 17 HR, 61 RBI, .249/.323/.406 (.729) / 4th year salary $2.3
2009 - 116 G, 391 AB, 43 R, 12 HR, 46 RBI, .258/.351/.391 (.742)
Reasonable Season Line Expectation - 145 G, 525 AB, 55 R, 16 HR, 60 RBI, .260/.340/.400 (.740)
Mark Teahen (5th year $3.5). Was coming off a really bad .715 OPS full season in year four. i.e., exactly what Hermida is doing now. A really bad fourth year.
This is a great comp, and I don’t think looking at others really matters. You can see “higher” comps looking at Cody, and I think it’s safe to say Hermida is not going to do that. So Teahen had 572 AB, 66 R, 15 HR, 59 RBI, and a .715 OPS, made the same money as Hermida made in year 4, and got a $1.2 million raise.
Hermida is basically doing that. This is going to be quick and dirty.
Low - $3. They bench him the rest of the year and doesn’t get the AB
Medium - $3.5. They play him, and he does exactly what he’s been doing
High - $4. He OPS’s .800+ and is totally sweet the rest of the year, to really bump the OPS R/RBI/HR points up significantly into the 75 R/RBI, 20 HR, .780+ OPS range. Very doubtful, but I’ll come back to this if Hermida decides to crush a lot.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Arbitration Files: Ricky Nolasco
Ricky Nolasco ($2.4 salary year 4)
2008 - 212 IP, 15-8, 3.52 era, 1.10 whip, 186 K
2009 - 136.1 IP, 9-8, 5.22 era, 1.26 whip, 136 K
Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 185 IP, 12-10, 4.50 era, 1.25 whip, 180 K
Ricky is going to be an interesting case. Ace type year 2008, ace type half season, worst pitcher ever half season. This is going to go to an arbitrator for sure. I can’t see the Marlins offering him anything based on the horrible year, and I’d do the same thing, and Ricky’s agent is going to be “45 of 60 starts have been ace quality.” This one is probably the most volatile. Even more volatile than JJ. Alright so.
David Bush (Year 4 salary - $2.55)
2008 - 185 IP, 9-10, 4.18 era, 1.14 whip, 109 K Year 4, Year 5 Salary $4 million.
Nate Robertson (Year 4 salary $3.25)
2007 - 177.2 IP, 9-13, 4.76 era, 1.47 whip, 119 K / Year 5 $4.25 (part of a contract)
Joe Blanton (year 4 $3.7)
2008 - 197.2 IP, 9-12, 4.69 era, 1.41 whip, 111 K . Year 5 $5.7 (Arbitration)
So these are all over the place. Notice these are all losing pitchers, the best one (whip right?) makes the least money. Why? Because Robertson and Blanton started higher off on the money in year 4 because they threw more innings in years 2 and 3. So the arm surgery is going to hurt Ricky here a bit just because he is starting lower than all of them, at $2.4.
But Ricky is better than all of them. He has the best overall season in 2008. He has been ace like half of this year. His first half will certainly knock him down so he doesn’t drop a $3 million raise into the mid $5 million range, but he certainly has to be above the $1 million Robertson got, and probably a little over Bush’s $1.5 raise because he’s likely going to have more wins, similar era, ton more K, and an overall “better career” rating to tip the scale. Will he get a $2+ million raise? That’ll be interesting and where the aforementioned arbitration battle will concern.
Low - $4. This is between a Bush/Blanton raise.
Medium - $4.5. This is almost doubling his salary, and over the Blanton raise in dollar value. He gets this level because he’s better than Blanton, so despite starting lower on the pay scale than Joe, he gets the same dollar value moving up. This is of course, assuming the final line and Ricky really needs to be awesome to lower his era/etc. this low. If not, it will go closer to Bush. But I’m working under the assumption Ricky is a beast over his final 10 starts.
High - $5. Inflation really drives it up. Find it unlikely.
2008 - 212 IP, 15-8, 3.52 era, 1.10 whip, 186 K
2009 - 136.1 IP, 9-8, 5.22 era, 1.26 whip, 136 K
Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 185 IP, 12-10, 4.50 era, 1.25 whip, 180 K
Ricky is going to be an interesting case. Ace type year 2008, ace type half season, worst pitcher ever half season. This is going to go to an arbitrator for sure. I can’t see the Marlins offering him anything based on the horrible year, and I’d do the same thing, and Ricky’s agent is going to be “45 of 60 starts have been ace quality.” This one is probably the most volatile. Even more volatile than JJ. Alright so.
David Bush (Year 4 salary - $2.55)
2008 - 185 IP, 9-10, 4.18 era, 1.14 whip, 109 K Year 4, Year 5 Salary $4 million.
Nate Robertson (Year 4 salary $3.25)
2007 - 177.2 IP, 9-13, 4.76 era, 1.47 whip, 119 K / Year 5 $4.25 (part of a contract)
Joe Blanton (year 4 $3.7)
2008 - 197.2 IP, 9-12, 4.69 era, 1.41 whip, 111 K . Year 5 $5.7 (Arbitration)
So these are all over the place. Notice these are all losing pitchers, the best one (whip right?) makes the least money. Why? Because Robertson and Blanton started higher off on the money in year 4 because they threw more innings in years 2 and 3. So the arm surgery is going to hurt Ricky here a bit just because he is starting lower than all of them, at $2.4.
But Ricky is better than all of them. He has the best overall season in 2008. He has been ace like half of this year. His first half will certainly knock him down so he doesn’t drop a $3 million raise into the mid $5 million range, but he certainly has to be above the $1 million Robertson got, and probably a little over Bush’s $1.5 raise because he’s likely going to have more wins, similar era, ton more K, and an overall “better career” rating to tip the scale. Will he get a $2+ million raise? That’ll be interesting and where the aforementioned arbitration battle will concern.
Low - $4. This is between a Bush/Blanton raise.
Medium - $4.5. This is almost doubling his salary, and over the Blanton raise in dollar value. He gets this level because he’s better than Blanton, so despite starting lower on the pay scale than Joe, he gets the same dollar value moving up. This is of course, assuming the final line and Ricky really needs to be awesome to lower his era/etc. this low. If not, it will go closer to Bush. But I’m working under the assumption Ricky is a beast over his final 10 starts.
High - $5. Inflation really drives it up. Find it unlikely.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Arbitration Files: Cody Ross
Cody Ross (4th year salary $2.2)
2008 - 145 G, 461 AB, 59 R, 22 HR, 73 RBI, .260/.316/.488 (.804)
2009 - 112 G, 412 AB, 62 R, 20 HR, 64 RBI, .262/.320/.478 (.798) (as of Aug 16th)
Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 155 G, 560 AB, 80 R, 27 HR, 85 RBI, .260/.320/.475 (.795)
Comparables
Alex Rios
2007 - 161 G, 114 R, 24 HR, 85 RBI, 17 SB, .297/.354/.498 (.852) ($2.5)
2008 - 155 G, 91 R, 15 HR, 79 RBI, 32 SB, .291/.337/.461 (.798) ($4.8)
Not perfect, but I want to use Rios because of the defensive factor to nip that in the butt right from the start. Cody obviously is killing it with the glove, so I wanted to at least have a similar offensive performer (OPS/HR wise) on the list. Also, because Rios $2.5 in year 4 is very similar to Ross $2.2
Year 5s
Teahen - $3.5. Had a .715 OPS. Cody’s over this.
Cuddyer - $3.75. Made $1.4 in year 4,significantly lower than Cody. Had .867 OPS year 4. This is a $2.5ish jump, so it shows how much you can go up. This is similar to Atkins, etc, when it comes to performance jumps.
Sizemore - $4.6
Granderson - $5.5
Hawpe - $5.5 (made $3.9 in year 4, significantly higher than Cody)
Braun - $6 (incentives could push up)
Markakis - $6.75 (made $3 in year 4)
I do not think this one is complicated. Cody is having a nice, non-breakout huge Cuddyer like season, so he’s due for a decent raise. He shouldn’t get as much of a raise as Cuddyer, but it should be close because of inflation. The rest of the star outfielders, Cody has no shot at.
Low $3.5. Teahen, and Cody’s ‘lower’ AB in 2008 hurt him. Very doubtful.
Medium $4.2. Gets a $2 million raise. Not quite the $2.5+ raise Atkins/Cuddyer and others have gotten, but enough to make a big dent in his salary.
High - None. He’s not getting in sniffing distance of Sizemore. No upside here.
2008 - 145 G, 461 AB, 59 R, 22 HR, 73 RBI, .260/.316/.488 (.804)
2009 - 112 G, 412 AB, 62 R, 20 HR, 64 RBI, .262/.320/.478 (.798) (as of Aug 16th)
Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 155 G, 560 AB, 80 R, 27 HR, 85 RBI, .260/.320/.475 (.795)
Comparables
Alex Rios
2007 - 161 G, 114 R, 24 HR, 85 RBI, 17 SB, .297/.354/.498 (.852) ($2.5)
2008 - 155 G, 91 R, 15 HR, 79 RBI, 32 SB, .291/.337/.461 (.798) ($4.8)
Not perfect, but I want to use Rios because of the defensive factor to nip that in the butt right from the start. Cody obviously is killing it with the glove, so I wanted to at least have a similar offensive performer (OPS/HR wise) on the list. Also, because Rios $2.5 in year 4 is very similar to Ross $2.2
Year 5s
Teahen - $3.5. Had a .715 OPS. Cody’s over this.
Cuddyer - $3.75. Made $1.4 in year 4,significantly lower than Cody. Had .867 OPS year 4. This is a $2.5ish jump, so it shows how much you can go up. This is similar to Atkins, etc, when it comes to performance jumps.
Sizemore - $4.6
Granderson - $5.5
Hawpe - $5.5 (made $3.9 in year 4, significantly higher than Cody)
Braun - $6 (incentives could push up)
Markakis - $6.75 (made $3 in year 4)
I do not think this one is complicated. Cody is having a nice, non-breakout huge Cuddyer like season, so he’s due for a decent raise. He shouldn’t get as much of a raise as Cuddyer, but it should be close because of inflation. The rest of the star outfielders, Cody has no shot at.
Low $3.5. Teahen, and Cody’s ‘lower’ AB in 2008 hurt him. Very doubtful.
Medium $4.2. Gets a $2 million raise. Not quite the $2.5+ raise Atkins/Cuddyer and others have gotten, but enough to make a big dent in his salary.
High - None. He’s not getting in sniffing distance of Sizemore. No upside here.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Arbitration Files: Dan Uggla
Dan Uggla (4th year salary $5.35)
2008 - 146 G, 531 AB, 97 R, 32 HR, 92 RBI, 171 K, .260/.360/.514 (.874)
2009 - 109 G, 387 AB, 52 R, 20 HR, 60 RBI, 97 K, .240/.354/.450 (.804) (Aug. 13th)
Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 158 G, 550 AB, 80 R, 30 HR, 85 RBI, 150 K, .245/.360/.450 (.810)
Not a second baseman, but what’s really important to note is Garret Atkins.
2007 - 605 AB, .853 OPS, 25 HR, 111 RBI - Club Controlled YEAR 3
2008 - 611 AB, .780 OPS, 21 HR, 99 RBI - $4.3 million YEAR 4
2009 - $7.05 Million < - YEAR 5
So regardless of a 70 OPS drop, once you make a lot, you make a lot and will get a significant pay raise. Granted Garrett Atkins still had very close HR/RBI/AB totals, but Uggla is going to get “close” (HR, only a handful less RBIs, less than 20 less Runs, a lot less K), to his 2008 rates even if that OPS is well off a .874. So anyway you look at it, Uggla is not going up $1-2 million. Uggla’s going to go up $3-4 easy.
Year 5
Chase Utley - $7.5, with unknown parts of signing bonus additional to this
Hanley Ramirez - $ 7 (using middle infielders too)
Dustin Pedroia - $5.5
Troy Tulowitzki - $5.5
Ian Kinsler - $4
Alright so we get the idea. Uggla is already over nearly all of them. This is easy. Atkins went down in performance, got a little less than a $3 million raise. Uggla’s performance is basically the same decline, but he’s still going to be paid.
Low - $7.4. Utleyish. Marlins try to be cute and slot him below him, and lose again. They did this in 2009 with a $4.4 million-$5.3 million gap (Utley made $4.5 in year 4, so there whole argument was "he's not as good as Utley." Doesn't work, as Utley had a contract with lower figures upfront. Dummies).
Medium - $8 million. This is an Atkinsish $2.7 raise, and very realistic.
High - $8.75. Uggla’s agent really try to push slot but bit off more than they can chew.
2008 - 146 G, 531 AB, 97 R, 32 HR, 92 RBI, 171 K, .260/.360/.514 (.874)
2009 - 109 G, 387 AB, 52 R, 20 HR, 60 RBI, 97 K, .240/.354/.450 (.804) (Aug. 13th)
Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 158 G, 550 AB, 80 R, 30 HR, 85 RBI, 150 K, .245/.360/.450 (.810)
Not a second baseman, but what’s really important to note is Garret Atkins.
2007 - 605 AB, .853 OPS, 25 HR, 111 RBI - Club Controlled YEAR 3
2008 - 611 AB, .780 OPS, 21 HR, 99 RBI - $4.3 million YEAR 4
2009 - $7.05 Million < - YEAR 5
So regardless of a 70 OPS drop, once you make a lot, you make a lot and will get a significant pay raise. Granted Garrett Atkins still had very close HR/RBI/AB totals, but Uggla is going to get “close” (HR, only a handful less RBIs, less than 20 less Runs, a lot less K), to his 2008 rates even if that OPS is well off a .874. So anyway you look at it, Uggla is not going up $1-2 million. Uggla’s going to go up $3-4 easy.
Year 5
Chase Utley - $7.5, with unknown parts of signing bonus additional to this
Hanley Ramirez - $ 7 (using middle infielders too)
Dustin Pedroia - $5.5
Troy Tulowitzki - $5.5
Ian Kinsler - $4
Alright so we get the idea. Uggla is already over nearly all of them. This is easy. Atkins went down in performance, got a little less than a $3 million raise. Uggla’s performance is basically the same decline, but he’s still going to be paid.
Low - $7.4. Utleyish. Marlins try to be cute and slot him below him, and lose again. They did this in 2009 with a $4.4 million-$5.3 million gap (Utley made $4.5 in year 4, so there whole argument was "he's not as good as Utley." Doesn't work, as Utley had a contract with lower figures upfront. Dummies).
Medium - $8 million. This is an Atkinsish $2.7 raise, and very realistic.
High - $8.75. Uggla’s agent really try to push slot but bit off more than they can chew.
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Arbitration Files: Josh Johnson
Josh Johnson (Current 4th year salary - $1.4 million)
2008 - 87.1 IP, 7-1, CG, 3.61 era, 77 K, 1.35 whip
2009 - 148 IP, 10-2, 2 CG, 2.98 era, 123 K, 1.11 whip (as of Aug 6th)
Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 220 IP, 15-4, 3.25 era, 185k, 1.15 whip
Usually it's tough to find comps as good as this one, but we got lucky below.
Zack Greinke
2007 - 122 IP, 7-7, 3.69 era, 106 K, 1.30 whip < - Half year because of injury, just like JJ
2008 - 202.1 IP, 13-10, 3.47 era, 183 K, 1.28 whip < - $1.4 million year 4. Same as JJ
Post 2008, Greinke signed a 4/$38 extension, $3.75-$7.25-$13.50-$13.5 (signed after year 4)
So where do we begin. Greinke is spot on from years 3/4. This is the slot, we just have to value how much more is Johnson than Greinke. JJ has an enormous “loss” advantage, a bit of whip, and probably a quarter to a half run less era. He also made the all-star team in 2009. JJ is clearly going to be slotted above Greinke off performance, and because of inflation.
Contract Comparisons - Player Stats for Year 4 / Contract Value Year 5
Adam Wainwright - 158.1 IP, 12-7, 2.79 era, 1.28 whip, 140 K / $4.65 million (signed after year 2)
Matt Cain - 148 IP, 12-3, 2.25 era, 1.16 whip, 117 K / $4.25 million (signed after year 1)
Jon Lester - Currently in year 3 / $5.75 million (signed after year 2)
James Shields - Currently in year 3 / $4.25 million (signed after year 1)
Cole Hamels (a Super2), signed a contract for years 3-4-5 for $4.35, $6.65, and $.9.5 million. The $9.5 is technically his year 5 salary so that isn’t comparable to JJ, but that $6.65 certainly marks the HIGH. Hamels was coming off a 227 IP, 14-10, 3.09 era, 1.08 whip, 196 K season. That is certainly very comparable to what Johnson is doing right now. Hamels signed the deal after year 2.
Other notable pitchers hitting arbitration year 5, year 4 salary noted - Felix Hernandez ($3.8), Justin Verlander ($3.6)
So the question now is, what is Johnson’s arbitration status for next year. What is his long-term contract status for next year. Each probably have very different responses.
Arbitration
At this point, it is clear Johnson is going to murder people all year. Most believed at some point that he would come back to earth but that is simply not going to happen. Since his return from Tommy John surgery, Johnson is an amazing 18-3. But JJ has decided he’s going to be a legitimate # 1 SP. Great, awesome. Despite the fact his Year-3 innings are low and Greinke is such an amazing comp for all the reasons where we’d hope he’d only slot above him maybe a million bucks to the “Wainwright” level of compensation, we have the new Lester and Hamels contracts to deal with. JJ has to go above Lester in arbitration. He’s simply better than him and the Marlins are going to get slammed if they try and argue a low 3 era / 1.15 whip / 180 K JJ, is lower than a (projecting) 3.75 / 1.30 / 200 K Lester. There’s just no way an arbitration panel is going to buy that, even if you want to argue AL/NL, etc. Additionally, Lester is a bad comp for JJ because the 5th year contract price is LOWER than what the ‘free market’ would give because the Red Sox bought this year 3 years in advance. Jon Lester arguing a contract in three years is a higher value than him signing one right now. So suffice to say, if the Marlins are insane and don’t offer JJ a 4-5 year deal (see below), they are going to get slammed. I don’t know if JJ can get up to Hamels, who has been healthy and won the World Series, but it’s going to be. An additional problem would be if King Felix or Verlander randomly have their arbitration hearing before Johnson’s, or sign new deals. They would each get to Hamels levels easily. Making the case even harder for the Marlins.
So the Arbitration Projection.
Low - $4.75 million. Wainwrightish, and JJ is hurt by his lack of innings in 2008.
Medium - $5.8 million. Lesterish, and JJ because the top non-Super2 slot for 5th year players. (not including Verlander or Felix really jumping here, which is possible)
High - $6.75. Hamelsish, and JJ becomes the new slot because he is that awesome and general inflation
I think the Marlins strategy would be a low 5 and arguing everyone but Hamels. I think if Johnson attempts to go huge with Hamels, he’ll get shot down for the lack of innings in year 3. Those innings won’t have a major effect on his figure, but they are still there to tip the scale. If the Marlins try to low-ball this, like they did with Dan Uggla last year, they are going to lose. But, I think discussing arbitration strategy is foolish. JJ needs the contract. And he needs it now.
Contract
So you don’t have to scroll up, Greinke signed a 4/$38 extension, $3.75-$7.25-$13.50-$13.5 (4/$38). Lester is making (years 5-8, including option) $5.75-$7.6-$11.6, $13 (4/$37). So we have a nice baseline for top young starters here. One, who has the same innings pitched track JJ does, and the other bought out years in advance. JJ has to be slotted above this. Forgot Wainwright, who is $4.6-$6.5-$9-$12 (4/$32). Nice deal for the Cards.
So after the back and forth with Johnson wanting a $70 million deal and the Marlins wanting to give him $38.01 million, I think this is reasonable.
2010 - $5.5 million
2011 - $7.75 million
2012 - $14 million
2013 - $14.25 million
2014 - $14.5 million club option / $1.5 buyout
4/$43 or 5/$56
That seems about right. JJ will either be 29 or 30 at the end of this deal, meaning he is due another huge payday in his career. Which is very important and why he’d never sign a 7 year deal. Not that we would want to either, but just saying.
Overall. I find it imperative the the Marlins sign Johnson to a 4-5 year contract similar to the above. Not just because arbitration is scary, but because we don’t have to sign anyone else. JJ is simply a cornerstone player you build around. Also from JJ’s perspective, he still is coming off the major arm surgery. Banking $5-6 million in arbitration would be nice, but that’s not “settle down forever” money. Getting a $40-50 million dollar contract is “locked up for life.” The time is now for both parties for the deal. Make it happen. Git R Dun.
2008 - 87.1 IP, 7-1, CG, 3.61 era, 77 K, 1.35 whip
2009 - 148 IP, 10-2, 2 CG, 2.98 era, 123 K, 1.11 whip (as of Aug 6th)
Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 220 IP, 15-4, 3.25 era, 185k, 1.15 whip
Usually it's tough to find comps as good as this one, but we got lucky below.
Zack Greinke
2007 - 122 IP, 7-7, 3.69 era, 106 K, 1.30 whip < - Half year because of injury, just like JJ
2008 - 202.1 IP, 13-10, 3.47 era, 183 K, 1.28 whip < - $1.4 million year 4. Same as JJ
Post 2008, Greinke signed a 4/$38 extension, $3.75-$7.25-$13.50-$13.5 (signed after year 4)
So where do we begin. Greinke is spot on from years 3/4. This is the slot, we just have to value how much more is Johnson than Greinke. JJ has an enormous “loss” advantage, a bit of whip, and probably a quarter to a half run less era. He also made the all-star team in 2009. JJ is clearly going to be slotted above Greinke off performance, and because of inflation.
Contract Comparisons - Player Stats for Year 4 / Contract Value Year 5
Adam Wainwright - 158.1 IP, 12-7, 2.79 era, 1.28 whip, 140 K / $4.65 million (signed after year 2)
Matt Cain - 148 IP, 12-3, 2.25 era, 1.16 whip, 117 K / $4.25 million (signed after year 1)
Jon Lester - Currently in year 3 / $5.75 million (signed after year 2)
James Shields - Currently in year 3 / $4.25 million (signed after year 1)
Cole Hamels (a Super2), signed a contract for years 3-4-5 for $4.35, $6.65, and $.9.5 million. The $9.5 is technically his year 5 salary so that isn’t comparable to JJ, but that $6.65 certainly marks the HIGH. Hamels was coming off a 227 IP, 14-10, 3.09 era, 1.08 whip, 196 K season. That is certainly very comparable to what Johnson is doing right now. Hamels signed the deal after year 2.
Other notable pitchers hitting arbitration year 5, year 4 salary noted - Felix Hernandez ($3.8), Justin Verlander ($3.6)
So the question now is, what is Johnson’s arbitration status for next year. What is his long-term contract status for next year. Each probably have very different responses.
Arbitration
At this point, it is clear Johnson is going to murder people all year. Most believed at some point that he would come back to earth but that is simply not going to happen. Since his return from Tommy John surgery, Johnson is an amazing 18-3. But JJ has decided he’s going to be a legitimate # 1 SP. Great, awesome. Despite the fact his Year-3 innings are low and Greinke is such an amazing comp for all the reasons where we’d hope he’d only slot above him maybe a million bucks to the “Wainwright” level of compensation, we have the new Lester and Hamels contracts to deal with. JJ has to go above Lester in arbitration. He’s simply better than him and the Marlins are going to get slammed if they try and argue a low 3 era / 1.15 whip / 180 K JJ, is lower than a (projecting) 3.75 / 1.30 / 200 K Lester. There’s just no way an arbitration panel is going to buy that, even if you want to argue AL/NL, etc. Additionally, Lester is a bad comp for JJ because the 5th year contract price is LOWER than what the ‘free market’ would give because the Red Sox bought this year 3 years in advance. Jon Lester arguing a contract in three years is a higher value than him signing one right now. So suffice to say, if the Marlins are insane and don’t offer JJ a 4-5 year deal (see below), they are going to get slammed. I don’t know if JJ can get up to Hamels, who has been healthy and won the World Series, but it’s going to be. An additional problem would be if King Felix or Verlander randomly have their arbitration hearing before Johnson’s, or sign new deals. They would each get to Hamels levels easily. Making the case even harder for the Marlins.
So the Arbitration Projection.
Low - $4.75 million. Wainwrightish, and JJ is hurt by his lack of innings in 2008.
Medium - $5.8 million. Lesterish, and JJ because the top non-Super2 slot for 5th year players. (not including Verlander or Felix really jumping here, which is possible)
High - $6.75. Hamelsish, and JJ becomes the new slot because he is that awesome and general inflation
I think the Marlins strategy would be a low 5 and arguing everyone but Hamels. I think if Johnson attempts to go huge with Hamels, he’ll get shot down for the lack of innings in year 3. Those innings won’t have a major effect on his figure, but they are still there to tip the scale. If the Marlins try to low-ball this, like they did with Dan Uggla last year, they are going to lose. But, I think discussing arbitration strategy is foolish. JJ needs the contract. And he needs it now.
Contract
So you don’t have to scroll up, Greinke signed a 4/$38 extension, $3.75-$7.25-$13.50-$13.5 (4/$38). Lester is making (years 5-8, including option) $5.75-$7.6-$11.6, $13 (4/$37). So we have a nice baseline for top young starters here. One, who has the same innings pitched track JJ does, and the other bought out years in advance. JJ has to be slotted above this. Forgot Wainwright, who is $4.6-$6.5-$9-$12 (4/$32). Nice deal for the Cards.
So after the back and forth with Johnson wanting a $70 million deal and the Marlins wanting to give him $38.01 million, I think this is reasonable.
2010 - $5.5 million
2011 - $7.75 million
2012 - $14 million
2013 - $14.25 million
2014 - $14.5 million club option / $1.5 buyout
4/$43 or 5/$56
That seems about right. JJ will either be 29 or 30 at the end of this deal, meaning he is due another huge payday in his career. Which is very important and why he’d never sign a 7 year deal. Not that we would want to either, but just saying.
Overall. I find it imperative the the Marlins sign Johnson to a 4-5 year contract similar to the above. Not just because arbitration is scary, but because we don’t have to sign anyone else. JJ is simply a cornerstone player you build around. Also from JJ’s perspective, he still is coming off the major arm surgery. Banking $5-6 million in arbitration would be nice, but that’s not “settle down forever” money. Getting a $40-50 million dollar contract is “locked up for life.” The time is now for both parties for the deal. Make it happen. Git R Dun.
Monday, August 10, 2009
Arbitration Files: Jorge Cantu
Over the next few days we'll be taking a look at the Florida Marlins that are due arbitration in the fall. First up is Marlins 1b/3b Jorge Cantu.
Jorge Cantu (Current 5th year salary - $3.5 million)
2008 - 155 G, 628 AB, 92 R, 28 HR, 95 RBI, .277/.327/.481 (.808)
2009 - 101 G, 394 AB, 42 R, 11 HR, 62 RBI, .277/.336/.434 (.770) (Aug. 10)
Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 152 G, 600 AB, 70 R, 18 HR, 90 RBI, .280/.340/.460 (.800)
Comparables
Joe Crede (5th year salary $4.94 M, 6th year $5.1 M). Came off injury from 07-08 so he got a nominal upgrade. He had a .828 OPS in year 4, which warranted him getting up to the $5 million range in year 5.
Casey Blake (5th year $3.75, 6th year $6.1). Blake had a .777 OPS in year 5, which lead to that salary in year 6. Cantu is going to match Blake’s year in a worst case scenario, probably get over it. This
Chad Tracy is making $5.75 this year (including buyout). He just sucks.
Bill Hall is going to make $6.8. But he also has the added positional flexibility, making him a ‘maybe’ comp, but we don’t have much to look for.
Longoria is going to make $6 million, in year 6. Wow. Zimmerman $8.9. Wright $10.
Some 1B for food for though. A. Gonzalez $5.5, Laroche and Overbay each $7, Pena $8. Youk $9. Morneau $10.6. Just not good comps here.
Alright, so that’s a good baseline. Crede did nothing in 2007, and got over $5. Blake did OK, and got over $6. Blake also had a $2.25M jump which is 60% of his previous contract value. The Tracy comp sucks for the Marlins. Cantu has to go above him based on his last two year, and immediate year, performance. So does he get to Blake? Depending on where his season line this year ends will dictate that question. The combination of not always at 3B may slot him a little higher as it seems 1B make more than 3B (or maybe they are just better, which is likely), but Cantu’s horrific defense could be a tie breaker and slot it down.
Low - $5.75. He gets Tracy’d.
Medium - $6.25. Over Blake. He is statistically better than him with more HR/RBI, and his lack of playing time in 2007 and defense don’t really hurt him.
High - $7. Atkins. He really, really, pounds the ball the last 50 games and gets to the .830 OPS/28 HR/100RBI level, and doesn’t commit to many of the mystical “errors.”
Jorge Cantu (Current 5th year salary - $3.5 million)
2008 - 155 G, 628 AB, 92 R, 28 HR, 95 RBI, .277/.327/.481 (.808)
2009 - 101 G, 394 AB, 42 R, 11 HR, 62 RBI, .277/.336/.434 (.770) (Aug. 10)
Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 152 G, 600 AB, 70 R, 18 HR, 90 RBI, .280/.340/.460 (.800)
Comparables
Joe Crede (5th year salary $4.94 M, 6th year $5.1 M). Came off injury from 07-08 so he got a nominal upgrade. He had a .828 OPS in year 4, which warranted him getting up to the $5 million range in year 5.
Casey Blake (5th year $3.75, 6th year $6.1). Blake had a .777 OPS in year 5, which lead to that salary in year 6. Cantu is going to match Blake’s year in a worst case scenario, probably get over it. This
Chad Tracy is making $5.75 this year (including buyout). He just sucks.
Bill Hall is going to make $6.8. But he also has the added positional flexibility, making him a ‘maybe’ comp, but we don’t have much to look for.
Longoria is going to make $6 million, in year 6. Wow. Zimmerman $8.9. Wright $10.
Some 1B for food for though. A. Gonzalez $5.5, Laroche and Overbay each $7, Pena $8. Youk $9. Morneau $10.6. Just not good comps here.
Alright, so that’s a good baseline. Crede did nothing in 2007, and got over $5. Blake did OK, and got over $6. Blake also had a $2.25M jump which is 60% of his previous contract value. The Tracy comp sucks for the Marlins. Cantu has to go above him based on his last two year, and immediate year, performance. So does he get to Blake? Depending on where his season line this year ends will dictate that question. The combination of not always at 3B may slot him a little higher as it seems 1B make more than 3B (or maybe they are just better, which is likely), but Cantu’s horrific defense could be a tie breaker and slot it down.
Low - $5.75. He gets Tracy’d.
Medium - $6.25. Over Blake. He is statistically better than him with more HR/RBI, and his lack of playing time in 2007 and defense don’t really hurt him.
High - $7. Atkins. He really, really, pounds the ball the last 50 games and gets to the .830 OPS/28 HR/100RBI level, and doesn’t commit to many of the mystical “errors.”
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