As of today, the three pitchers the Marlins are sending to the Arizona Fall League are all relievers. There's a very good chance that if healthy, the fourth Marlins pitcher sent will be Kyle Winters, but he is still recovering from surgery.
Jay Voss: Big 6'4 lefty, combined 2-1 with a 2.79era, .222baa in 48.1 innings between High-A and Double A. Has struck out 43, walked 17 and given up 39 hits. Marlins signed him for $80,000 as an 8th round pick in the 2007 draft. He pitched mostly as a starter in 2007-08 before becoming a fulltime reliever in 2009.
Jay Buente: Drafted by Marlins in the 14th round in 2006 out of Purdue University. 6'2 righty, combined 4-2 with a 3.01era, .234baa in 74.2 innings between Double A and Triple A. Career 3.31era, 1.26whip in 163.2ip coming into 2009.
Garrett Parcell: Combined 1-0 with a 0.53era, .143baa in 33.2 innings between High-A and Double A. Was one of seven San Diego State Aztecs to be taken in the 2007 amateur draft. There were some that believed the Marlins selected him too high, as he was expected to last past the 12th round. In his final season at SD State, he only threw 9.2 innings, giving up 7 runs on 11 hits while walking 5. The low inning total was due to an arm injury which hampered him throughout the season. Before transferring to San Diego State, Garrett spent two seasons at Cypress Junior College, leading the team in saves both seasons, striking out 25 batters in 24 2/3 innings pitched his sophomore year. He was named to the All-Orange Empire Conference second team during his junior college career. Prior to the Marlins drafting him in 2007, Parcell was drafted in the 41st round by the Seattle Mariners in 2004 before deciding to attend SDSU.
The 6′5 Parcell has an easy delivery with a classic 3/4 arm slot that allows him to repeat his throwing motion. His fastball runs in the high 80s, low 90s range but it’s his 2 other pitches which allow him to miss as many bats as he does. He can throw his changeup as low as 69mph and his curveball in the mid 70s. He mixes all 3 pitches in well and that led to him to great success in his first tour of duty in Jamestown in 2007.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Marlins headed to the Arizona Fall League
Marlins will play for the Mesa Solar Sox (along with prospects from the Angels, Cubs, Red Sox, and Twins) with Bo Porter managing
We have 4 spots for pitchers, but only have used 3 at this point (Kyle Winters is probably the 4th choice, depends on his health)
Jay Buente, Jay Voss and Garrett Parcell
Matt Dominguez will go along with Michael Stanton, Bryan Petersen and Greg Burns
Greg Burns is on the taxi squad, meaning he will only be activated on Wednesdays and Saturdays.
Arizona Fall League Player Eligibility
Roster size is established at 35 players per team.
Each major-league organization is required to provide seven players subject to the
following eligibility requirements:
• All Triple-A and Double-A players are eligible provided they are on
Double-A rosters no later than August 17.
• Two players below the Double-A level are allowed for 2009.
• Foreign players are allowed as long as the player is not on his native
country’s primary protected player list.
• No players with more than two years of credited major league service
as of August 31 (including major league disabled list time) are eligible
except a team may select one player picked in the most recently
concluded Major League Rule 5 Draft.
• Each team is allotted 20 pitchers but only 15 are designated “eligible”
each game day.
We have 4 spots for pitchers, but only have used 3 at this point (Kyle Winters is probably the 4th choice, depends on his health)
Jay Buente, Jay Voss and Garrett Parcell
Matt Dominguez will go along with Michael Stanton, Bryan Petersen and Greg Burns
Greg Burns is on the taxi squad, meaning he will only be activated on Wednesdays and Saturdays.
Arizona Fall League Player Eligibility
Roster size is established at 35 players per team.
Each major-league organization is required to provide seven players subject to the
following eligibility requirements:
• All Triple-A and Double-A players are eligible provided they are on
Double-A rosters no later than August 17.
• Two players below the Double-A level are allowed for 2009.
• Foreign players are allowed as long as the player is not on his native
country’s primary protected player list.
• No players with more than two years of credited major league service
as of August 31 (including major league disabled list time) are eligible
except a team may select one player picked in the most recently
concluded Major League Rule 5 Draft.
• Each team is allotted 20 pitchers but only 15 are designated “eligible”
each game day.
Arbitration Files: The Bullpen
Matt Lindstrom
2007-2008, 134 G, 6-7, 5 S, 33 Holds, 124ish IP, 3.10ish era, 1.38ish whip, 105 K
2009, 41 G, 36 IP, 2-1, 14 S, 3 H, 5.75 era, 1.69 whip, 29 K
Reasonable Projection Season Line - 50 G, 45 IP, 3-2, 20 S, 5 H, still really high era/whip
Career - Around 185 Games, 170 IP, sub 4 era, 1.45ish whip, 25 saves, 40 holds
Leo Nunez
2005-2008 106 G, 160 IP, 9-7, 0 S, 10 H, 5ish era, 1.40ish whip, 110ish K
2009 58 G, 53.1 IP, 3-4, 14 S, 13 H, 4.05 era, 1.24 whip, 49 K
Reasonable Projection Season Line - 75 G, 70 IP, 4-5, 15 S, 18 H, 3.50 era, 1.20 whip, 70 K
Career - Around 185 Games, 230 IP, mid 4 era, 1.40 whip, 15 S, 30 Holds
Reynel Pinto
2006-2008 - 151 G, 153 IP, 4-9, 2 S, 36 H, high 3 era, low 1.40s whip, 150ish K
2009 - 56 G, 47 IP, 3-1, 9 H, 2.87 era, 1.51 whip, 46 K
Reasonable Projection Season Line - 70 G, 60 IP, 4-2, 2.90 era, 1.50 whip, 60 K, 12 H
Career - Around 220 Games, 220 IP, mid 3 era, 1.45ish whip, 2 Saves, 45-50 holds, 200+ K
Scott Proctor
2008 - 38.2 IP, 6.05 era, 1.68 whip
2009 - Injured
Career - 262 G, 297 IP, 16-10, 1 S, 48 H, 4.42 era, 1.40 whip, 256 K
A basic primer of recent RP comparables.
Years 4-5-6 salary trends
Grant Balfour $.500, $1.4
Scott Downs $.705, $1.025, $2.25
Brian Shouse - $.725, $.975
Frank Francisco $.775, $1.6
Jason Grilli $.8
Jason Frasor - $.825, $1.125, $1.45
Matt Thornton $.875, $1.325
Dan Wheeler $.930, $2.1, $2.8
Matt Guerrier $.950k, $1.475
Jesse Crain $1.05
Heath Bell $1.2
CJ Wilson $1.85
Mike Gonzalez $2.25
Let’s start from the top. Mike Gonzalez was awesome in Pitt, doing sub 3 era, 1.22 whip over 50 innings, got 24 saves in year 3. If Lindstrom gets every save here on out, he can match the saves total (and Gonzalez prior years were loogy-holds years, so this is similar to Lindstrom as well), so this is the PEAK. However, Lindstrom has the double era, and the atrocious most recent season. So let’s find a less awesome Gonzalez.
CJ Wilson in 2008 - 24 S, 6.02 era, 1.64 whip, and the two years prior very solid 115 IP of work at a 3.5 era, 1.30 whip, 22 H, etc. Career wise, CJ pitched 2005-2008 in 184 G, mid 4 era, 1.40+ whip, 24 S, 27 H, and around 170 K. This kind of looks like Lindstrom. Except Lindstrom has better career ERA rates (ballpark factor, but I don’t know if arbiters will care for that argument), and more holds which are becoming slightly more ‘sexier’ as agents find ways to get middle relievers paid.
To show how dramatic these save stats are, look at Heath Bell, unquestionably great. He is coming off back to back seasons which combine into 175 IP, a 1.10 whip, a low 3 era, an absurd 57 holds, 2 Saves, and 173 K. He makes less than CJ Wilson, because CJ Wilson has 20 more saves. Yea, the save stat is stupid.
Basically, going to stop with Lindstrom right here, and I am very surprised at where I am projecting this number. Based on CJ Wilson, Lindstrom is going to get paid quite handsomely. He has a better overall resume than CJ. The only thing CJ has is, more saves in year 3. This projection is based on Lindstrom getting 5-6 more saves, but overall isn’t probably going to change much if he doesn’t get him. The change would move from the medium to the low.
Low - $1.65 million. He does not get any saves the rest of the year
Medium - $1.85 million. He gets CJ’s contract and his better career rates make up the gap of not getting more saves in year 3
High - $2 million. Lindstrom is balls awesome the rest of the year and gets more saves.
So let’s move down to Leo Nunez now. Who is getting saves to. He is 1/2 the saves of everyone else, low teens.
Wheeler in 2006 had a 9 S/25 H year, and career wise had 14 saves entering arbitration. 4th year arbitration got him $930K, and he had really wicked back to back 70 IP, 2.50 era, 1.05 whipish seasons leading up to that. RP are insane! I love how CJ Wilson makes twice the money as Wheeler because he got 15 more saves. So, Leo does not have Wheeler’s resume, but he may end the year with some more saves if the Marlins opt to pitch him as closer versus Lindstrom. Let’s end Leo here, and assuming no horrific era explosion
Low - $1,000,000. Leo gets no more saves
Medium - $1,300,000. Leo gets 5-6 more saves.
High - $1,600,000. Leo gets 10 more saves.
So now we’re down to Pinto, just an ordinary non-save getting relief pitcher (that happens to love putting baserunners on like they're going out of style).
I like Thornton here, for similar career rates (3.79, 1.35 whip, tons of holds, Under 5 Saves pre year 4), the lefty factor, and games played. Pinto has played a lot for a RP. He’s not as good as Thornton from the whip factor, so he probably won’t get all the way to him, but you can see the range of all of these guys falling into the 700-850k range, so that seems safe for pinto.
Low - $750k. Whip hurts him
Medium - $850k. All the games played add up to one of the higher RP comps.
High - None.
So now we’re at Proctor. He made $1.15 in 2008, coming off 180 IP and an absurd 135 games over 2006-2007. All good rates, around a 3.50 era, 1.30 whip, 45 holds, a save, etc. Really nice workhorse reliever, and it shows you that ‘saves’ aren’t determinative because he got over Wheeler’s 9 saves, with an extra 50 innings of work or so. Then in 2009, he was non-tendered because he sucked, and was surely going to get a bump to the $2-2.25 million range. Marlins signed him for $750k.
I cannot think of any awesome RP for two years, crappy relief pitcher for 1 year, injured for entire next season, and then 6th year arbitration eligible RP comp. If you can, awesome. So I’m just going to guesstimate looking at some of those 6th year salaries (Guerrier and Frasor $1.4, Downs $2.2, Wheeler $2.8), where Proctor would land. Career good, recent two years bad. He’d at least get over $1 million. Maybe even a bit higher. But I’m going to just wild guess about $1.2 million. Making him a clear DFA for this organization.
2007-2008, 134 G, 6-7, 5 S, 33 Holds, 124ish IP, 3.10ish era, 1.38ish whip, 105 K
2009, 41 G, 36 IP, 2-1, 14 S, 3 H, 5.75 era, 1.69 whip, 29 K
Reasonable Projection Season Line - 50 G, 45 IP, 3-2, 20 S, 5 H, still really high era/whip
Career - Around 185 Games, 170 IP, sub 4 era, 1.45ish whip, 25 saves, 40 holds
Leo Nunez
2005-2008 106 G, 160 IP, 9-7, 0 S, 10 H, 5ish era, 1.40ish whip, 110ish K
2009 58 G, 53.1 IP, 3-4, 14 S, 13 H, 4.05 era, 1.24 whip, 49 K
Reasonable Projection Season Line - 75 G, 70 IP, 4-5, 15 S, 18 H, 3.50 era, 1.20 whip, 70 K
Career - Around 185 Games, 230 IP, mid 4 era, 1.40 whip, 15 S, 30 Holds
Reynel Pinto
2006-2008 - 151 G, 153 IP, 4-9, 2 S, 36 H, high 3 era, low 1.40s whip, 150ish K
2009 - 56 G, 47 IP, 3-1, 9 H, 2.87 era, 1.51 whip, 46 K
Reasonable Projection Season Line - 70 G, 60 IP, 4-2, 2.90 era, 1.50 whip, 60 K, 12 H
Career - Around 220 Games, 220 IP, mid 3 era, 1.45ish whip, 2 Saves, 45-50 holds, 200+ K
Scott Proctor
2008 - 38.2 IP, 6.05 era, 1.68 whip
2009 - Injured
Career - 262 G, 297 IP, 16-10, 1 S, 48 H, 4.42 era, 1.40 whip, 256 K
A basic primer of recent RP comparables.
Years 4-5-6 salary trends
Grant Balfour $.500, $1.4
Scott Downs $.705, $1.025, $2.25
Brian Shouse - $.725, $.975
Frank Francisco $.775, $1.6
Jason Grilli $.8
Jason Frasor - $.825, $1.125, $1.45
Matt Thornton $.875, $1.325
Dan Wheeler $.930, $2.1, $2.8
Matt Guerrier $.950k, $1.475
Jesse Crain $1.05
Heath Bell $1.2
CJ Wilson $1.85
Mike Gonzalez $2.25
Let’s start from the top. Mike Gonzalez was awesome in Pitt, doing sub 3 era, 1.22 whip over 50 innings, got 24 saves in year 3. If Lindstrom gets every save here on out, he can match the saves total (and Gonzalez prior years were loogy-holds years, so this is similar to Lindstrom as well), so this is the PEAK. However, Lindstrom has the double era, and the atrocious most recent season. So let’s find a less awesome Gonzalez.
CJ Wilson in 2008 - 24 S, 6.02 era, 1.64 whip, and the two years prior very solid 115 IP of work at a 3.5 era, 1.30 whip, 22 H, etc. Career wise, CJ pitched 2005-2008 in 184 G, mid 4 era, 1.40+ whip, 24 S, 27 H, and around 170 K. This kind of looks like Lindstrom. Except Lindstrom has better career ERA rates (ballpark factor, but I don’t know if arbiters will care for that argument), and more holds which are becoming slightly more ‘sexier’ as agents find ways to get middle relievers paid.
To show how dramatic these save stats are, look at Heath Bell, unquestionably great. He is coming off back to back seasons which combine into 175 IP, a 1.10 whip, a low 3 era, an absurd 57 holds, 2 Saves, and 173 K. He makes less than CJ Wilson, because CJ Wilson has 20 more saves. Yea, the save stat is stupid.
Basically, going to stop with Lindstrom right here, and I am very surprised at where I am projecting this number. Based on CJ Wilson, Lindstrom is going to get paid quite handsomely. He has a better overall resume than CJ. The only thing CJ has is, more saves in year 3. This projection is based on Lindstrom getting 5-6 more saves, but overall isn’t probably going to change much if he doesn’t get him. The change would move from the medium to the low.
Low - $1.65 million. He does not get any saves the rest of the year
Medium - $1.85 million. He gets CJ’s contract and his better career rates make up the gap of not getting more saves in year 3
High - $2 million. Lindstrom is balls awesome the rest of the year and gets more saves.
So let’s move down to Leo Nunez now. Who is getting saves to. He is 1/2 the saves of everyone else, low teens.
Wheeler in 2006 had a 9 S/25 H year, and career wise had 14 saves entering arbitration. 4th year arbitration got him $930K, and he had really wicked back to back 70 IP, 2.50 era, 1.05 whipish seasons leading up to that. RP are insane! I love how CJ Wilson makes twice the money as Wheeler because he got 15 more saves. So, Leo does not have Wheeler’s resume, but he may end the year with some more saves if the Marlins opt to pitch him as closer versus Lindstrom. Let’s end Leo here, and assuming no horrific era explosion
Low - $1,000,000. Leo gets no more saves
Medium - $1,300,000. Leo gets 5-6 more saves.
High - $1,600,000. Leo gets 10 more saves.
So now we’re down to Pinto, just an ordinary non-save getting relief pitcher (that happens to love putting baserunners on like they're going out of style).
I like Thornton here, for similar career rates (3.79, 1.35 whip, tons of holds, Under 5 Saves pre year 4), the lefty factor, and games played. Pinto has played a lot for a RP. He’s not as good as Thornton from the whip factor, so he probably won’t get all the way to him, but you can see the range of all of these guys falling into the 700-850k range, so that seems safe for pinto.
Low - $750k. Whip hurts him
Medium - $850k. All the games played add up to one of the higher RP comps.
High - None.
So now we’re at Proctor. He made $1.15 in 2008, coming off 180 IP and an absurd 135 games over 2006-2007. All good rates, around a 3.50 era, 1.30 whip, 45 holds, a save, etc. Really nice workhorse reliever, and it shows you that ‘saves’ aren’t determinative because he got over Wheeler’s 9 saves, with an extra 50 innings of work or so. Then in 2009, he was non-tendered because he sucked, and was surely going to get a bump to the $2-2.25 million range. Marlins signed him for $750k.
I cannot think of any awesome RP for two years, crappy relief pitcher for 1 year, injured for entire next season, and then 6th year arbitration eligible RP comp. If you can, awesome. So I’m just going to guesstimate looking at some of those 6th year salaries (Guerrier and Frasor $1.4, Downs $2.2, Wheeler $2.8), where Proctor would land. Career good, recent two years bad. He’d at least get over $1 million. Maybe even a bit higher. But I’m going to just wild guess about $1.2 million. Making him a clear DFA for this organization.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Thomas Hickman : Revenge of the Fallen
I don't really know what the title of this article means, but I liked it. So whatever.
With the 63rd overall pick in the 2006 draft, the Marlins selected outfielder Thomas Hickman. A two way player in high school, the Marlins decided he was more projectable as a hitter, so pitching was quickly scrapped from his resume. Like many left handed hitters, he has a smooth stroke and allows ball to travel deep before centering them. His first 175 professional at bats with the Gulf Coast League Marlins were promising as he hit .263/.377/.411. After that season, some in the Marlins organization began calling him "Baby Hermida” because of his swing and good eye at the plate.
Signing for $575,000 out of Pepperell HS in Georgia, Hickman hit .183/.278/.256 in 164 at bats while in short season Jamestown. On the one hand, he again showed a strong walk rate; on the other hand, he also struck out at an astronomical pace. Making any kind of contact was an issue for Thomas, and when he did get a hit, rarely did he provide any power. Not blessed with blazing speed, he’ll be relegated to one of the corner outfield spots, although he has good instincts. Because of his strong arm, to go along with promising power, he could develop into a real good right fielder. These things were also said about the Marlins current right fielder, Jeremy Hermida. Of note in his season in Greensboro in 2008, his OPS improved every month, culminating in a .872 August. He also managed to have a .250 increase in OPS (.897) with runners on base as opposed to the bases empty in just about the same amount of at bats.
Because of his youth and his walk rate, there is still a bit of promise for Hickman as scouts believe as he matures and gains more muscle, he will show significant gap and homerun power. He has a good confidence about him and the Marlins love his makeup. Many believe he will be a prototype 2 hole hitter in the majors, but he needs to make better contact. Just 21 years old, Thomas should have spent most of this season in High-A Jupiter, but only saw 70 at bats where he hit .129/.274/.229 with an amazing 33 strikeouts. He then got hurt (when you swing and miss so often, you're bound to sprain something) and when he returned, he went back to Low-A Greensboro. Since his return, Hickman has been en fuego hitting .333/.467/.729 in his first 15 games in the SALLY. He's walked 12 times while striking out 12 times in that span.
Yea, him repeating Greensboro is not impressive at all but considering how bad he was earlier in the year, it looks like there's still some potential with Hickman after all. We'll have to see how he finishes his season as there is just a few games left in the minor league year. He was Future Fish's 26th ranked prosect to start 2009, he'll probably be in the same company heading into 2010.
Friday, August 21, 2009
Arbitration Files: Anibal Sanchez
Anibal Sanchez
2006 - 18 G, 114.1 IP, 10-3, 2.83 era, 1.19 whip, 72 k
2007 - 6 G, 30 IP, 2-1, 4.80 era, 2.07 whip, 14 k
2008 - 10 G, 51.2 IP, 5.57 era, 1.57 whip, 50 K
2009 - 7 G, 35.2 IP, 5.55 era, 1.77 whip, 28 K
Career - 41 G, 40 S, 231 IP, 15-13, 4.12 era, 1.48 whip, 164 K
Reasonable Expectation Season Line - No freaking idea. But it doesn’t matter.
Apparently John Patterson is out of the contract system, but if I remember correctly after his ace like 2005 season with the Nationals (31 G, 198 IP, 3.13 era, 1.19 whip, 185K), he got $1.8 million. 2002-2004, he made 32 starts. So about 63 starts. Anibal has had nowhere near this success in games player, or starts. So this represents the “high” for sure.
So I’m trying to think of other injured starters that had underachieving fourth year arbitration figures as a result?
Sergio Mitre (year 4 $1.2 million)
2003-2006 - 51 G, 25 S, 5-15, about 160 IP, eyeballing a 5.8ish era, etc
2007 - 27 GS, 149 IP, 5-8, 4.65 era, 1.48 whip, 80 K.
Josh Johnson (year 4 $1.4 million)
2005-2007 - 39 G, 29 GS. 12-10, Had around 185 IP with a sub 3.50 era and 160 K or so.
2008 - 14 GS, 87.1 IP, 7-1, 3.61 era, 1.35 whip, 77 K.
So Anibal is around the same amount of games started here and service time as JJ, has 3/4s a year up in ERA pretty much, not as good whip stats, and slightly less Ks. Johnson is a great comp for Anibal. He can’t go over Johnson no matter what, which is good for us. But as we saw with stuff like Francouer making more money than Hermida, despite less stats, this season, the amount of games player factor is pretty strong in determining these. Anibal is going to go up similarly as a result. Mitre on the other hand, has a lot more playing time, but it’s his performance that really shot him down. Anibal has a slightly better career performance, but not as much playing time. So Mitre is also a good comp for the Marlins.
Low - $900,000. Lack of playing time and brutal 2007-2009 really hurt him. He does not come back this year.
Medium - $1,000,000. His career numbers are better than Mitre, but he’s played in 30 less games. Comes back and throws a few starts.
High - $1,250,000. His better stats make up the gap to Mitre’s more playing time. He’s going to need to throw at least 8-9 non horrible starts this year.
2006 - 18 G, 114.1 IP, 10-3, 2.83 era, 1.19 whip, 72 k
2007 - 6 G, 30 IP, 2-1, 4.80 era, 2.07 whip, 14 k
2008 - 10 G, 51.2 IP, 5.57 era, 1.57 whip, 50 K
2009 - 7 G, 35.2 IP, 5.55 era, 1.77 whip, 28 K
Career - 41 G, 40 S, 231 IP, 15-13, 4.12 era, 1.48 whip, 164 K
Reasonable Expectation Season Line - No freaking idea. But it doesn’t matter.
Apparently John Patterson is out of the contract system, but if I remember correctly after his ace like 2005 season with the Nationals (31 G, 198 IP, 3.13 era, 1.19 whip, 185K), he got $1.8 million. 2002-2004, he made 32 starts. So about 63 starts. Anibal has had nowhere near this success in games player, or starts. So this represents the “high” for sure.
So I’m trying to think of other injured starters that had underachieving fourth year arbitration figures as a result?
Sergio Mitre (year 4 $1.2 million)
2003-2006 - 51 G, 25 S, 5-15, about 160 IP, eyeballing a 5.8ish era, etc
2007 - 27 GS, 149 IP, 5-8, 4.65 era, 1.48 whip, 80 K.
Josh Johnson (year 4 $1.4 million)
2005-2007 - 39 G, 29 GS. 12-10, Had around 185 IP with a sub 3.50 era and 160 K or so.
2008 - 14 GS, 87.1 IP, 7-1, 3.61 era, 1.35 whip, 77 K.
So Anibal is around the same amount of games started here and service time as JJ, has 3/4s a year up in ERA pretty much, not as good whip stats, and slightly less Ks. Johnson is a great comp for Anibal. He can’t go over Johnson no matter what, which is good for us. But as we saw with stuff like Francouer making more money than Hermida, despite less stats, this season, the amount of games player factor is pretty strong in determining these. Anibal is going to go up similarly as a result. Mitre on the other hand, has a lot more playing time, but it’s his performance that really shot him down. Anibal has a slightly better career performance, but not as much playing time. So Mitre is also a good comp for the Marlins.
Low - $900,000. Lack of playing time and brutal 2007-2009 really hurt him. He does not come back this year.
Medium - $1,000,000. His career numbers are better than Mitre, but he’s played in 30 less games. Comes back and throws a few starts.
High - $1,250,000. His better stats make up the gap to Mitre’s more playing time. He’s going to need to throw at least 8-9 non horrible starts this year.
Arbitration Files: Jeremy Hermida
Jeremy Hermida
2007 - .870 OPS
2008 - 142 G, 502 AB, 74 R, 17 HR, 61 RBI, .249/.323/.406 (.729) / 4th year salary $2.3
2009 - 116 G, 391 AB, 43 R, 12 HR, 46 RBI, .258/.351/.391 (.742)
Reasonable Season Line Expectation - 145 G, 525 AB, 55 R, 16 HR, 60 RBI, .260/.340/.400 (.740)
Mark Teahen (5th year $3.5). Was coming off a really bad .715 OPS full season in year four. i.e., exactly what Hermida is doing now. A really bad fourth year.
This is a great comp, and I don’t think looking at others really matters. You can see “higher” comps looking at Cody, and I think it’s safe to say Hermida is not going to do that. So Teahen had 572 AB, 66 R, 15 HR, 59 RBI, and a .715 OPS, made the same money as Hermida made in year 4, and got a $1.2 million raise.
Hermida is basically doing that. This is going to be quick and dirty.
Low - $3. They bench him the rest of the year and doesn’t get the AB
Medium - $3.5. They play him, and he does exactly what he’s been doing
High - $4. He OPS’s .800+ and is totally sweet the rest of the year, to really bump the OPS R/RBI/HR points up significantly into the 75 R/RBI, 20 HR, .780+ OPS range. Very doubtful, but I’ll come back to this if Hermida decides to crush a lot.
2007 - .870 OPS
2008 - 142 G, 502 AB, 74 R, 17 HR, 61 RBI, .249/.323/.406 (.729) / 4th year salary $2.3
2009 - 116 G, 391 AB, 43 R, 12 HR, 46 RBI, .258/.351/.391 (.742)
Reasonable Season Line Expectation - 145 G, 525 AB, 55 R, 16 HR, 60 RBI, .260/.340/.400 (.740)
Mark Teahen (5th year $3.5). Was coming off a really bad .715 OPS full season in year four. i.e., exactly what Hermida is doing now. A really bad fourth year.
This is a great comp, and I don’t think looking at others really matters. You can see “higher” comps looking at Cody, and I think it’s safe to say Hermida is not going to do that. So Teahen had 572 AB, 66 R, 15 HR, 59 RBI, and a .715 OPS, made the same money as Hermida made in year 4, and got a $1.2 million raise.
Hermida is basically doing that. This is going to be quick and dirty.
Low - $3. They bench him the rest of the year and doesn’t get the AB
Medium - $3.5. They play him, and he does exactly what he’s been doing
High - $4. He OPS’s .800+ and is totally sweet the rest of the year, to really bump the OPS R/RBI/HR points up significantly into the 75 R/RBI, 20 HR, .780+ OPS range. Very doubtful, but I’ll come back to this if Hermida decides to crush a lot.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Arbitration Files: Ricky Nolasco
Ricky Nolasco ($2.4 salary year 4)
2008 - 212 IP, 15-8, 3.52 era, 1.10 whip, 186 K
2009 - 136.1 IP, 9-8, 5.22 era, 1.26 whip, 136 K
Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 185 IP, 12-10, 4.50 era, 1.25 whip, 180 K
Ricky is going to be an interesting case. Ace type year 2008, ace type half season, worst pitcher ever half season. This is going to go to an arbitrator for sure. I can’t see the Marlins offering him anything based on the horrible year, and I’d do the same thing, and Ricky’s agent is going to be “45 of 60 starts have been ace quality.” This one is probably the most volatile. Even more volatile than JJ. Alright so.
David Bush (Year 4 salary - $2.55)
2008 - 185 IP, 9-10, 4.18 era, 1.14 whip, 109 K Year 4, Year 5 Salary $4 million.
Nate Robertson (Year 4 salary $3.25)
2007 - 177.2 IP, 9-13, 4.76 era, 1.47 whip, 119 K / Year 5 $4.25 (part of a contract)
Joe Blanton (year 4 $3.7)
2008 - 197.2 IP, 9-12, 4.69 era, 1.41 whip, 111 K . Year 5 $5.7 (Arbitration)
So these are all over the place. Notice these are all losing pitchers, the best one (whip right?) makes the least money. Why? Because Robertson and Blanton started higher off on the money in year 4 because they threw more innings in years 2 and 3. So the arm surgery is going to hurt Ricky here a bit just because he is starting lower than all of them, at $2.4.
But Ricky is better than all of them. He has the best overall season in 2008. He has been ace like half of this year. His first half will certainly knock him down so he doesn’t drop a $3 million raise into the mid $5 million range, but he certainly has to be above the $1 million Robertson got, and probably a little over Bush’s $1.5 raise because he’s likely going to have more wins, similar era, ton more K, and an overall “better career” rating to tip the scale. Will he get a $2+ million raise? That’ll be interesting and where the aforementioned arbitration battle will concern.
Low - $4. This is between a Bush/Blanton raise.
Medium - $4.5. This is almost doubling his salary, and over the Blanton raise in dollar value. He gets this level because he’s better than Blanton, so despite starting lower on the pay scale than Joe, he gets the same dollar value moving up. This is of course, assuming the final line and Ricky really needs to be awesome to lower his era/etc. this low. If not, it will go closer to Bush. But I’m working under the assumption Ricky is a beast over his final 10 starts.
High - $5. Inflation really drives it up. Find it unlikely.
2008 - 212 IP, 15-8, 3.52 era, 1.10 whip, 186 K
2009 - 136.1 IP, 9-8, 5.22 era, 1.26 whip, 136 K
Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 185 IP, 12-10, 4.50 era, 1.25 whip, 180 K
Ricky is going to be an interesting case. Ace type year 2008, ace type half season, worst pitcher ever half season. This is going to go to an arbitrator for sure. I can’t see the Marlins offering him anything based on the horrible year, and I’d do the same thing, and Ricky’s agent is going to be “45 of 60 starts have been ace quality.” This one is probably the most volatile. Even more volatile than JJ. Alright so.
David Bush (Year 4 salary - $2.55)
2008 - 185 IP, 9-10, 4.18 era, 1.14 whip, 109 K Year 4, Year 5 Salary $4 million.
Nate Robertson (Year 4 salary $3.25)
2007 - 177.2 IP, 9-13, 4.76 era, 1.47 whip, 119 K / Year 5 $4.25 (part of a contract)
Joe Blanton (year 4 $3.7)
2008 - 197.2 IP, 9-12, 4.69 era, 1.41 whip, 111 K . Year 5 $5.7 (Arbitration)
So these are all over the place. Notice these are all losing pitchers, the best one (whip right?) makes the least money. Why? Because Robertson and Blanton started higher off on the money in year 4 because they threw more innings in years 2 and 3. So the arm surgery is going to hurt Ricky here a bit just because he is starting lower than all of them, at $2.4.
But Ricky is better than all of them. He has the best overall season in 2008. He has been ace like half of this year. His first half will certainly knock him down so he doesn’t drop a $3 million raise into the mid $5 million range, but he certainly has to be above the $1 million Robertson got, and probably a little over Bush’s $1.5 raise because he’s likely going to have more wins, similar era, ton more K, and an overall “better career” rating to tip the scale. Will he get a $2+ million raise? That’ll be interesting and where the aforementioned arbitration battle will concern.
Low - $4. This is between a Bush/Blanton raise.
Medium - $4.5. This is almost doubling his salary, and over the Blanton raise in dollar value. He gets this level because he’s better than Blanton, so despite starting lower on the pay scale than Joe, he gets the same dollar value moving up. This is of course, assuming the final line and Ricky really needs to be awesome to lower his era/etc. this low. If not, it will go closer to Bush. But I’m working under the assumption Ricky is a beast over his final 10 starts.
High - $5. Inflation really drives it up. Find it unlikely.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Arbitration Files: Cody Ross
Cody Ross (4th year salary $2.2)
2008 - 145 G, 461 AB, 59 R, 22 HR, 73 RBI, .260/.316/.488 (.804)
2009 - 112 G, 412 AB, 62 R, 20 HR, 64 RBI, .262/.320/.478 (.798) (as of Aug 16th)
Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 155 G, 560 AB, 80 R, 27 HR, 85 RBI, .260/.320/.475 (.795)
Comparables
Alex Rios
2007 - 161 G, 114 R, 24 HR, 85 RBI, 17 SB, .297/.354/.498 (.852) ($2.5)
2008 - 155 G, 91 R, 15 HR, 79 RBI, 32 SB, .291/.337/.461 (.798) ($4.8)
Not perfect, but I want to use Rios because of the defensive factor to nip that in the butt right from the start. Cody obviously is killing it with the glove, so I wanted to at least have a similar offensive performer (OPS/HR wise) on the list. Also, because Rios $2.5 in year 4 is very similar to Ross $2.2
Year 5s
Teahen - $3.5. Had a .715 OPS. Cody’s over this.
Cuddyer - $3.75. Made $1.4 in year 4,significantly lower than Cody. Had .867 OPS year 4. This is a $2.5ish jump, so it shows how much you can go up. This is similar to Atkins, etc, when it comes to performance jumps.
Sizemore - $4.6
Granderson - $5.5
Hawpe - $5.5 (made $3.9 in year 4, significantly higher than Cody)
Braun - $6 (incentives could push up)
Markakis - $6.75 (made $3 in year 4)
I do not think this one is complicated. Cody is having a nice, non-breakout huge Cuddyer like season, so he’s due for a decent raise. He shouldn’t get as much of a raise as Cuddyer, but it should be close because of inflation. The rest of the star outfielders, Cody has no shot at.
Low $3.5. Teahen, and Cody’s ‘lower’ AB in 2008 hurt him. Very doubtful.
Medium $4.2. Gets a $2 million raise. Not quite the $2.5+ raise Atkins/Cuddyer and others have gotten, but enough to make a big dent in his salary.
High - None. He’s not getting in sniffing distance of Sizemore. No upside here.
2008 - 145 G, 461 AB, 59 R, 22 HR, 73 RBI, .260/.316/.488 (.804)
2009 - 112 G, 412 AB, 62 R, 20 HR, 64 RBI, .262/.320/.478 (.798) (as of Aug 16th)
Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 155 G, 560 AB, 80 R, 27 HR, 85 RBI, .260/.320/.475 (.795)
Comparables
Alex Rios
2007 - 161 G, 114 R, 24 HR, 85 RBI, 17 SB, .297/.354/.498 (.852) ($2.5)
2008 - 155 G, 91 R, 15 HR, 79 RBI, 32 SB, .291/.337/.461 (.798) ($4.8)
Not perfect, but I want to use Rios because of the defensive factor to nip that in the butt right from the start. Cody obviously is killing it with the glove, so I wanted to at least have a similar offensive performer (OPS/HR wise) on the list. Also, because Rios $2.5 in year 4 is very similar to Ross $2.2
Year 5s
Teahen - $3.5. Had a .715 OPS. Cody’s over this.
Cuddyer - $3.75. Made $1.4 in year 4,significantly lower than Cody. Had .867 OPS year 4. This is a $2.5ish jump, so it shows how much you can go up. This is similar to Atkins, etc, when it comes to performance jumps.
Sizemore - $4.6
Granderson - $5.5
Hawpe - $5.5 (made $3.9 in year 4, significantly higher than Cody)
Braun - $6 (incentives could push up)
Markakis - $6.75 (made $3 in year 4)
I do not think this one is complicated. Cody is having a nice, non-breakout huge Cuddyer like season, so he’s due for a decent raise. He shouldn’t get as much of a raise as Cuddyer, but it should be close because of inflation. The rest of the star outfielders, Cody has no shot at.
Low $3.5. Teahen, and Cody’s ‘lower’ AB in 2008 hurt him. Very doubtful.
Medium $4.2. Gets a $2 million raise. Not quite the $2.5+ raise Atkins/Cuddyer and others have gotten, but enough to make a big dent in his salary.
High - None. He’s not getting in sniffing distance of Sizemore. No upside here.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Arbitration Files: Dan Uggla
Dan Uggla (4th year salary $5.35)
2008 - 146 G, 531 AB, 97 R, 32 HR, 92 RBI, 171 K, .260/.360/.514 (.874)
2009 - 109 G, 387 AB, 52 R, 20 HR, 60 RBI, 97 K, .240/.354/.450 (.804) (Aug. 13th)
Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 158 G, 550 AB, 80 R, 30 HR, 85 RBI, 150 K, .245/.360/.450 (.810)
Not a second baseman, but what’s really important to note is Garret Atkins.
2007 - 605 AB, .853 OPS, 25 HR, 111 RBI - Club Controlled YEAR 3
2008 - 611 AB, .780 OPS, 21 HR, 99 RBI - $4.3 million YEAR 4
2009 - $7.05 Million < - YEAR 5
So regardless of a 70 OPS drop, once you make a lot, you make a lot and will get a significant pay raise. Granted Garrett Atkins still had very close HR/RBI/AB totals, but Uggla is going to get “close” (HR, only a handful less RBIs, less than 20 less Runs, a lot less K), to his 2008 rates even if that OPS is well off a .874. So anyway you look at it, Uggla is not going up $1-2 million. Uggla’s going to go up $3-4 easy.
Year 5
Chase Utley - $7.5, with unknown parts of signing bonus additional to this
Hanley Ramirez - $ 7 (using middle infielders too)
Dustin Pedroia - $5.5
Troy Tulowitzki - $5.5
Ian Kinsler - $4
Alright so we get the idea. Uggla is already over nearly all of them. This is easy. Atkins went down in performance, got a little less than a $3 million raise. Uggla’s performance is basically the same decline, but he’s still going to be paid.
Low - $7.4. Utleyish. Marlins try to be cute and slot him below him, and lose again. They did this in 2009 with a $4.4 million-$5.3 million gap (Utley made $4.5 in year 4, so there whole argument was "he's not as good as Utley." Doesn't work, as Utley had a contract with lower figures upfront. Dummies).
Medium - $8 million. This is an Atkinsish $2.7 raise, and very realistic.
High - $8.75. Uggla’s agent really try to push slot but bit off more than they can chew.
2008 - 146 G, 531 AB, 97 R, 32 HR, 92 RBI, 171 K, .260/.360/.514 (.874)
2009 - 109 G, 387 AB, 52 R, 20 HR, 60 RBI, 97 K, .240/.354/.450 (.804) (Aug. 13th)
Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 158 G, 550 AB, 80 R, 30 HR, 85 RBI, 150 K, .245/.360/.450 (.810)
Not a second baseman, but what’s really important to note is Garret Atkins.
2007 - 605 AB, .853 OPS, 25 HR, 111 RBI - Club Controlled YEAR 3
2008 - 611 AB, .780 OPS, 21 HR, 99 RBI - $4.3 million YEAR 4
2009 - $7.05 Million < - YEAR 5
So regardless of a 70 OPS drop, once you make a lot, you make a lot and will get a significant pay raise. Granted Garrett Atkins still had very close HR/RBI/AB totals, but Uggla is going to get “close” (HR, only a handful less RBIs, less than 20 less Runs, a lot less K), to his 2008 rates even if that OPS is well off a .874. So anyway you look at it, Uggla is not going up $1-2 million. Uggla’s going to go up $3-4 easy.
Year 5
Chase Utley - $7.5, with unknown parts of signing bonus additional to this
Hanley Ramirez - $ 7 (using middle infielders too)
Dustin Pedroia - $5.5
Troy Tulowitzki - $5.5
Ian Kinsler - $4
Alright so we get the idea. Uggla is already over nearly all of them. This is easy. Atkins went down in performance, got a little less than a $3 million raise. Uggla’s performance is basically the same decline, but he’s still going to be paid.
Low - $7.4. Utleyish. Marlins try to be cute and slot him below him, and lose again. They did this in 2009 with a $4.4 million-$5.3 million gap (Utley made $4.5 in year 4, so there whole argument was "he's not as good as Utley." Doesn't work, as Utley had a contract with lower figures upfront. Dummies).
Medium - $8 million. This is an Atkinsish $2.7 raise, and very realistic.
High - $8.75. Uggla’s agent really try to push slot but bit off more than they can chew.
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Arbitration Files: Josh Johnson
Josh Johnson (Current 4th year salary - $1.4 million)
2008 - 87.1 IP, 7-1, CG, 3.61 era, 77 K, 1.35 whip
2009 - 148 IP, 10-2, 2 CG, 2.98 era, 123 K, 1.11 whip (as of Aug 6th)
Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 220 IP, 15-4, 3.25 era, 185k, 1.15 whip
Usually it's tough to find comps as good as this one, but we got lucky below.
Zack Greinke
2007 - 122 IP, 7-7, 3.69 era, 106 K, 1.30 whip < - Half year because of injury, just like JJ
2008 - 202.1 IP, 13-10, 3.47 era, 183 K, 1.28 whip < - $1.4 million year 4. Same as JJ
Post 2008, Greinke signed a 4/$38 extension, $3.75-$7.25-$13.50-$13.5 (signed after year 4)
So where do we begin. Greinke is spot on from years 3/4. This is the slot, we just have to value how much more is Johnson than Greinke. JJ has an enormous “loss” advantage, a bit of whip, and probably a quarter to a half run less era. He also made the all-star team in 2009. JJ is clearly going to be slotted above Greinke off performance, and because of inflation.
Contract Comparisons - Player Stats for Year 4 / Contract Value Year 5
Adam Wainwright - 158.1 IP, 12-7, 2.79 era, 1.28 whip, 140 K / $4.65 million (signed after year 2)
Matt Cain - 148 IP, 12-3, 2.25 era, 1.16 whip, 117 K / $4.25 million (signed after year 1)
Jon Lester - Currently in year 3 / $5.75 million (signed after year 2)
James Shields - Currently in year 3 / $4.25 million (signed after year 1)
Cole Hamels (a Super2), signed a contract for years 3-4-5 for $4.35, $6.65, and $.9.5 million. The $9.5 is technically his year 5 salary so that isn’t comparable to JJ, but that $6.65 certainly marks the HIGH. Hamels was coming off a 227 IP, 14-10, 3.09 era, 1.08 whip, 196 K season. That is certainly very comparable to what Johnson is doing right now. Hamels signed the deal after year 2.
Other notable pitchers hitting arbitration year 5, year 4 salary noted - Felix Hernandez ($3.8), Justin Verlander ($3.6)
So the question now is, what is Johnson’s arbitration status for next year. What is his long-term contract status for next year. Each probably have very different responses.
Arbitration
At this point, it is clear Johnson is going to murder people all year. Most believed at some point that he would come back to earth but that is simply not going to happen. Since his return from Tommy John surgery, Johnson is an amazing 18-3. But JJ has decided he’s going to be a legitimate # 1 SP. Great, awesome. Despite the fact his Year-3 innings are low and Greinke is such an amazing comp for all the reasons where we’d hope he’d only slot above him maybe a million bucks to the “Wainwright” level of compensation, we have the new Lester and Hamels contracts to deal with. JJ has to go above Lester in arbitration. He’s simply better than him and the Marlins are going to get slammed if they try and argue a low 3 era / 1.15 whip / 180 K JJ, is lower than a (projecting) 3.75 / 1.30 / 200 K Lester. There’s just no way an arbitration panel is going to buy that, even if you want to argue AL/NL, etc. Additionally, Lester is a bad comp for JJ because the 5th year contract price is LOWER than what the ‘free market’ would give because the Red Sox bought this year 3 years in advance. Jon Lester arguing a contract in three years is a higher value than him signing one right now. So suffice to say, if the Marlins are insane and don’t offer JJ a 4-5 year deal (see below), they are going to get slammed. I don’t know if JJ can get up to Hamels, who has been healthy and won the World Series, but it’s going to be. An additional problem would be if King Felix or Verlander randomly have their arbitration hearing before Johnson’s, or sign new deals. They would each get to Hamels levels easily. Making the case even harder for the Marlins.
So the Arbitration Projection.
Low - $4.75 million. Wainwrightish, and JJ is hurt by his lack of innings in 2008.
Medium - $5.8 million. Lesterish, and JJ because the top non-Super2 slot for 5th year players. (not including Verlander or Felix really jumping here, which is possible)
High - $6.75. Hamelsish, and JJ becomes the new slot because he is that awesome and general inflation
I think the Marlins strategy would be a low 5 and arguing everyone but Hamels. I think if Johnson attempts to go huge with Hamels, he’ll get shot down for the lack of innings in year 3. Those innings won’t have a major effect on his figure, but they are still there to tip the scale. If the Marlins try to low-ball this, like they did with Dan Uggla last year, they are going to lose. But, I think discussing arbitration strategy is foolish. JJ needs the contract. And he needs it now.
Contract
So you don’t have to scroll up, Greinke signed a 4/$38 extension, $3.75-$7.25-$13.50-$13.5 (4/$38). Lester is making (years 5-8, including option) $5.75-$7.6-$11.6, $13 (4/$37). So we have a nice baseline for top young starters here. One, who has the same innings pitched track JJ does, and the other bought out years in advance. JJ has to be slotted above this. Forgot Wainwright, who is $4.6-$6.5-$9-$12 (4/$32). Nice deal for the Cards.
So after the back and forth with Johnson wanting a $70 million deal and the Marlins wanting to give him $38.01 million, I think this is reasonable.
2010 - $5.5 million
2011 - $7.75 million
2012 - $14 million
2013 - $14.25 million
2014 - $14.5 million club option / $1.5 buyout
4/$43 or 5/$56
That seems about right. JJ will either be 29 or 30 at the end of this deal, meaning he is due another huge payday in his career. Which is very important and why he’d never sign a 7 year deal. Not that we would want to either, but just saying.
Overall. I find it imperative the the Marlins sign Johnson to a 4-5 year contract similar to the above. Not just because arbitration is scary, but because we don’t have to sign anyone else. JJ is simply a cornerstone player you build around. Also from JJ’s perspective, he still is coming off the major arm surgery. Banking $5-6 million in arbitration would be nice, but that’s not “settle down forever” money. Getting a $40-50 million dollar contract is “locked up for life.” The time is now for both parties for the deal. Make it happen. Git R Dun.
2008 - 87.1 IP, 7-1, CG, 3.61 era, 77 K, 1.35 whip
2009 - 148 IP, 10-2, 2 CG, 2.98 era, 123 K, 1.11 whip (as of Aug 6th)
Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 220 IP, 15-4, 3.25 era, 185k, 1.15 whip
Usually it's tough to find comps as good as this one, but we got lucky below.
Zack Greinke
2007 - 122 IP, 7-7, 3.69 era, 106 K, 1.30 whip < - Half year because of injury, just like JJ
2008 - 202.1 IP, 13-10, 3.47 era, 183 K, 1.28 whip < - $1.4 million year 4. Same as JJ
Post 2008, Greinke signed a 4/$38 extension, $3.75-$7.25-$13.50-$13.5 (signed after year 4)
So where do we begin. Greinke is spot on from years 3/4. This is the slot, we just have to value how much more is Johnson than Greinke. JJ has an enormous “loss” advantage, a bit of whip, and probably a quarter to a half run less era. He also made the all-star team in 2009. JJ is clearly going to be slotted above Greinke off performance, and because of inflation.
Contract Comparisons - Player Stats for Year 4 / Contract Value Year 5
Adam Wainwright - 158.1 IP, 12-7, 2.79 era, 1.28 whip, 140 K / $4.65 million (signed after year 2)
Matt Cain - 148 IP, 12-3, 2.25 era, 1.16 whip, 117 K / $4.25 million (signed after year 1)
Jon Lester - Currently in year 3 / $5.75 million (signed after year 2)
James Shields - Currently in year 3 / $4.25 million (signed after year 1)
Cole Hamels (a Super2), signed a contract for years 3-4-5 for $4.35, $6.65, and $.9.5 million. The $9.5 is technically his year 5 salary so that isn’t comparable to JJ, but that $6.65 certainly marks the HIGH. Hamels was coming off a 227 IP, 14-10, 3.09 era, 1.08 whip, 196 K season. That is certainly very comparable to what Johnson is doing right now. Hamels signed the deal after year 2.
Other notable pitchers hitting arbitration year 5, year 4 salary noted - Felix Hernandez ($3.8), Justin Verlander ($3.6)
So the question now is, what is Johnson’s arbitration status for next year. What is his long-term contract status for next year. Each probably have very different responses.
Arbitration
At this point, it is clear Johnson is going to murder people all year. Most believed at some point that he would come back to earth but that is simply not going to happen. Since his return from Tommy John surgery, Johnson is an amazing 18-3. But JJ has decided he’s going to be a legitimate # 1 SP. Great, awesome. Despite the fact his Year-3 innings are low and Greinke is such an amazing comp for all the reasons where we’d hope he’d only slot above him maybe a million bucks to the “Wainwright” level of compensation, we have the new Lester and Hamels contracts to deal with. JJ has to go above Lester in arbitration. He’s simply better than him and the Marlins are going to get slammed if they try and argue a low 3 era / 1.15 whip / 180 K JJ, is lower than a (projecting) 3.75 / 1.30 / 200 K Lester. There’s just no way an arbitration panel is going to buy that, even if you want to argue AL/NL, etc. Additionally, Lester is a bad comp for JJ because the 5th year contract price is LOWER than what the ‘free market’ would give because the Red Sox bought this year 3 years in advance. Jon Lester arguing a contract in three years is a higher value than him signing one right now. So suffice to say, if the Marlins are insane and don’t offer JJ a 4-5 year deal (see below), they are going to get slammed. I don’t know if JJ can get up to Hamels, who has been healthy and won the World Series, but it’s going to be. An additional problem would be if King Felix or Verlander randomly have their arbitration hearing before Johnson’s, or sign new deals. They would each get to Hamels levels easily. Making the case even harder for the Marlins.
So the Arbitration Projection.
Low - $4.75 million. Wainwrightish, and JJ is hurt by his lack of innings in 2008.
Medium - $5.8 million. Lesterish, and JJ because the top non-Super2 slot for 5th year players. (not including Verlander or Felix really jumping here, which is possible)
High - $6.75. Hamelsish, and JJ becomes the new slot because he is that awesome and general inflation
I think the Marlins strategy would be a low 5 and arguing everyone but Hamels. I think if Johnson attempts to go huge with Hamels, he’ll get shot down for the lack of innings in year 3. Those innings won’t have a major effect on his figure, but they are still there to tip the scale. If the Marlins try to low-ball this, like they did with Dan Uggla last year, they are going to lose. But, I think discussing arbitration strategy is foolish. JJ needs the contract. And he needs it now.
Contract
So you don’t have to scroll up, Greinke signed a 4/$38 extension, $3.75-$7.25-$13.50-$13.5 (4/$38). Lester is making (years 5-8, including option) $5.75-$7.6-$11.6, $13 (4/$37). So we have a nice baseline for top young starters here. One, who has the same innings pitched track JJ does, and the other bought out years in advance. JJ has to be slotted above this. Forgot Wainwright, who is $4.6-$6.5-$9-$12 (4/$32). Nice deal for the Cards.
So after the back and forth with Johnson wanting a $70 million deal and the Marlins wanting to give him $38.01 million, I think this is reasonable.
2010 - $5.5 million
2011 - $7.75 million
2012 - $14 million
2013 - $14.25 million
2014 - $14.5 million club option / $1.5 buyout
4/$43 or 5/$56
That seems about right. JJ will either be 29 or 30 at the end of this deal, meaning he is due another huge payday in his career. Which is very important and why he’d never sign a 7 year deal. Not that we would want to either, but just saying.
Overall. I find it imperative the the Marlins sign Johnson to a 4-5 year contract similar to the above. Not just because arbitration is scary, but because we don’t have to sign anyone else. JJ is simply a cornerstone player you build around. Also from JJ’s perspective, he still is coming off the major arm surgery. Banking $5-6 million in arbitration would be nice, but that’s not “settle down forever” money. Getting a $40-50 million dollar contract is “locked up for life.” The time is now for both parties for the deal. Make it happen. Git R Dun.
Monday, August 10, 2009
Arbitration Files: Jorge Cantu
Over the next few days we'll be taking a look at the Florida Marlins that are due arbitration in the fall. First up is Marlins 1b/3b Jorge Cantu.
Jorge Cantu (Current 5th year salary - $3.5 million)
2008 - 155 G, 628 AB, 92 R, 28 HR, 95 RBI, .277/.327/.481 (.808)
2009 - 101 G, 394 AB, 42 R, 11 HR, 62 RBI, .277/.336/.434 (.770) (Aug. 10)
Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 152 G, 600 AB, 70 R, 18 HR, 90 RBI, .280/.340/.460 (.800)
Comparables
Joe Crede (5th year salary $4.94 M, 6th year $5.1 M). Came off injury from 07-08 so he got a nominal upgrade. He had a .828 OPS in year 4, which warranted him getting up to the $5 million range in year 5.
Casey Blake (5th year $3.75, 6th year $6.1). Blake had a .777 OPS in year 5, which lead to that salary in year 6. Cantu is going to match Blake’s year in a worst case scenario, probably get over it. This
Chad Tracy is making $5.75 this year (including buyout). He just sucks.
Bill Hall is going to make $6.8. But he also has the added positional flexibility, making him a ‘maybe’ comp, but we don’t have much to look for.
Longoria is going to make $6 million, in year 6. Wow. Zimmerman $8.9. Wright $10.
Some 1B for food for though. A. Gonzalez $5.5, Laroche and Overbay each $7, Pena $8. Youk $9. Morneau $10.6. Just not good comps here.
Alright, so that’s a good baseline. Crede did nothing in 2007, and got over $5. Blake did OK, and got over $6. Blake also had a $2.25M jump which is 60% of his previous contract value. The Tracy comp sucks for the Marlins. Cantu has to go above him based on his last two year, and immediate year, performance. So does he get to Blake? Depending on where his season line this year ends will dictate that question. The combination of not always at 3B may slot him a little higher as it seems 1B make more than 3B (or maybe they are just better, which is likely), but Cantu’s horrific defense could be a tie breaker and slot it down.
Low - $5.75. He gets Tracy’d.
Medium - $6.25. Over Blake. He is statistically better than him with more HR/RBI, and his lack of playing time in 2007 and defense don’t really hurt him.
High - $7. Atkins. He really, really, pounds the ball the last 50 games and gets to the .830 OPS/28 HR/100RBI level, and doesn’t commit to many of the mystical “errors.”
Jorge Cantu (Current 5th year salary - $3.5 million)
2008 - 155 G, 628 AB, 92 R, 28 HR, 95 RBI, .277/.327/.481 (.808)
2009 - 101 G, 394 AB, 42 R, 11 HR, 62 RBI, .277/.336/.434 (.770) (Aug. 10)
Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 152 G, 600 AB, 70 R, 18 HR, 90 RBI, .280/.340/.460 (.800)
Comparables
Joe Crede (5th year salary $4.94 M, 6th year $5.1 M). Came off injury from 07-08 so he got a nominal upgrade. He had a .828 OPS in year 4, which warranted him getting up to the $5 million range in year 5.
Casey Blake (5th year $3.75, 6th year $6.1). Blake had a .777 OPS in year 5, which lead to that salary in year 6. Cantu is going to match Blake’s year in a worst case scenario, probably get over it. This
Chad Tracy is making $5.75 this year (including buyout). He just sucks.
Bill Hall is going to make $6.8. But he also has the added positional flexibility, making him a ‘maybe’ comp, but we don’t have much to look for.
Longoria is going to make $6 million, in year 6. Wow. Zimmerman $8.9. Wright $10.
Some 1B for food for though. A. Gonzalez $5.5, Laroche and Overbay each $7, Pena $8. Youk $9. Morneau $10.6. Just not good comps here.
Alright, so that’s a good baseline. Crede did nothing in 2007, and got over $5. Blake did OK, and got over $6. Blake also had a $2.25M jump which is 60% of his previous contract value. The Tracy comp sucks for the Marlins. Cantu has to go above him based on his last two year, and immediate year, performance. So does he get to Blake? Depending on where his season line this year ends will dictate that question. The combination of not always at 3B may slot him a little higher as it seems 1B make more than 3B (or maybe they are just better, which is likely), but Cantu’s horrific defense could be a tie breaker and slot it down.
Low - $5.75. He gets Tracy’d.
Medium - $6.25. Over Blake. He is statistically better than him with more HR/RBI, and his lack of playing time in 2007 and defense don’t really hurt him.
High - $7. Atkins. He really, really, pounds the ball the last 50 games and gets to the .830 OPS/28 HR/100RBI level, and doesn’t commit to many of the mystical “errors.”
Friday, August 7, 2009
What's the deal with Jeff Allison?
(hopefully you read the title to yourself as if you were Jerry Seinfeld)
So here we are. 24 year old former phenom Jeff Allison has finally made it to Double-A ball up in Jacksonville. In his debut for the Suns, he went 5 innings and gave up 6 hits, 2 runs (both earned), walked 1 and struck out 3. This promotion is coming on the heels of his second go around in High-A Jupiter, this time a bit more successful than in 2008. In 20 starts for the Hammerheads this year, Allison went 4-8 with a 3.87era to go with a .275baa.
Because of the Marlins record in 2002, they had the 16th overall pick in the 2003 draft. They decided on the right-handed Jeff Allison from Veterans Memorial HS, in Peabody, Massachusetts. In his senior season at VMHS, Allison went 9-0, 0,00era with 142 strikeouts in 64 innings, giving up just 13 hits, nine walked and 1 unearned run. He only fell to the Marlins at 16 because of bonus demands, but that didn’t scare the Marlins away as they gave him a $1.85mil bonus. Right away he was compared to Marlins pitcher Josh Beckett and some believed he would be on the same kind of fast track that Josh was on. Allison had the best fastball (92-97mph) and curveball (80-86mph with nasty break) of any pitcher in the draft. In his first 9 major league innings, Allison didn’t allow a run. He was slated to debut for the low-A Greensboro Grasshoppers in 2004, but he took a major detour. Jeff nearly died after overdosing on the drugs oxycontin and heroine. After what looked he got his act together, Jeff made his Greensboro debut in 2005. Because of the layoff Allison’s stuff wasn’t nearly as good, but there were flashes of brilliance. His fastball was down to the high 80s-low 90s, but the big curveball was still there. He improved start by start and by the end of the year, he was going 6-7 innings in each start.
Again it looked like his career was getting back on track. Then in August of 2006 he overdosed again. Massachusetts police found Allison unconscious in an apartment building. Rescue workers revived Allison at the scene, and he was hospitalized in Winchester, Mass., and later released. In October of 2006, Jeff was arrested after an officer found him driving what was reportedly a stolen Dodge Ram. Inside the truck were heroin and drug paraphernalia, specifically syringes. He was facing 3 felony charges. He has since been able to get his life back on track.
His season in Jupiter in 2008 was a mixed bag. He pitched great in his first 10 starts of the year and then got hit hard towards the end of May and all of June. His arm got tired down the stretch but that was to be expected of him. Jeff no longer has the 95mph fastball he once had as he mainly works in the upper 80s and can reach 91-92 on occasion. His curveball shows glimpses of the table-dropper he once had. His changeup is still an above average pitch. At 24, soon to be 25, Allison can still be considered a prospect, albeit not a great one. He'll have a handful of starts in Jacksonville before their season is over.
So here we are. 24 year old former phenom Jeff Allison has finally made it to Double-A ball up in Jacksonville. In his debut for the Suns, he went 5 innings and gave up 6 hits, 2 runs (both earned), walked 1 and struck out 3. This promotion is coming on the heels of his second go around in High-A Jupiter, this time a bit more successful than in 2008. In 20 starts for the Hammerheads this year, Allison went 4-8 with a 3.87era to go with a .275baa.
Because of the Marlins record in 2002, they had the 16th overall pick in the 2003 draft. They decided on the right-handed Jeff Allison from Veterans Memorial HS, in Peabody, Massachusetts. In his senior season at VMHS, Allison went 9-0, 0,00era with 142 strikeouts in 64 innings, giving up just 13 hits, nine walked and 1 unearned run. He only fell to the Marlins at 16 because of bonus demands, but that didn’t scare the Marlins away as they gave him a $1.85mil bonus. Right away he was compared to Marlins pitcher Josh Beckett and some believed he would be on the same kind of fast track that Josh was on. Allison had the best fastball (92-97mph) and curveball (80-86mph with nasty break) of any pitcher in the draft. In his first 9 major league innings, Allison didn’t allow a run. He was slated to debut for the low-A Greensboro Grasshoppers in 2004, but he took a major detour. Jeff nearly died after overdosing on the drugs oxycontin and heroine. After what looked he got his act together, Jeff made his Greensboro debut in 2005. Because of the layoff Allison’s stuff wasn’t nearly as good, but there were flashes of brilliance. His fastball was down to the high 80s-low 90s, but the big curveball was still there. He improved start by start and by the end of the year, he was going 6-7 innings in each start.
Again it looked like his career was getting back on track. Then in August of 2006 he overdosed again. Massachusetts police found Allison unconscious in an apartment building. Rescue workers revived Allison at the scene, and he was hospitalized in Winchester, Mass., and later released. In October of 2006, Jeff was arrested after an officer found him driving what was reportedly a stolen Dodge Ram. Inside the truck were heroin and drug paraphernalia, specifically syringes. He was facing 3 felony charges. He has since been able to get his life back on track.
His season in Jupiter in 2008 was a mixed bag. He pitched great in his first 10 starts of the year and then got hit hard towards the end of May and all of June. His arm got tired down the stretch but that was to be expected of him. Jeff no longer has the 95mph fastball he once had as he mainly works in the upper 80s and can reach 91-92 on occasion. His curveball shows glimpses of the table-dropper he once had. His changeup is still an above average pitch. At 24, soon to be 25, Allison can still be considered a prospect, albeit not a great one. He'll have a handful of starts in Jacksonville before their season is over.
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
July Roundup: Pitching Prospects
Remember when this organization was all pitching prospects/no hitting prospects? Things have changed in a big way. Analysis c/o lou at http://soflamarlins.com/
NOLA (AAA)
Brett Sinkbeil RP
Season as Reliever - 30 IP, 3.90 era, 1.60 whip (33 H, 15 BB), 18 K, .289 BAA
Hayden Penn SP/RP
July - 22.1 IP, 7.66 era, 1.88 whip (31 H, 11 BB), 16 K, .337 BAA
Tim Wood RP
Season - 32.1 IP, 2.51 era, 1.36 whip (31 H, 13 BB), 28 K, .248 BAA
Andrew Miller SP
has been absolutely obliterated for 10 ER in 5.2 IP since being sent down.
Chris Mobley RP
Season - 41.2 IP, 3.24 era, 1.29 whip (47 H, 7 BB), 33 K, .283 BAA
So the quick wrap up. It’s looking like a real smart idea of putting Wood on the 40 man and protecting him from the Rule5 draft as he is turning in a quality season (whip is a little high, but whatever) between AAA/MLB levels. Penn is still horrific. Miller who the hell knows (and now he's hurt his ankle fielding a come backer). Mobley continues to put up solid numbers at every level. He probably won’t ever really see time with the Marlins as we have better RP prospects, but he has excellent control, decent GB rates (historically anyways), and could be a 4th or 5th righty out of the bullpen in a year or two. At least Sink is doing SOMETHING.
Jax (AA)
Aaron Thompson - Traded for Nick Johnson (Good trade, hopefully Thompson gets a Sept callup in DC)
Christian Martinez SP/RP
July - 36 IP, 5.00 era, 1.44 whip (44 H, 8 BB), 18 K, .308 BAA
Graham Taylor SP
July - 20 IP, 8.10 era... and I don’t need to type the rest
Sean West
July - 15.1 IP, 5.28 era, 1.43 whip (16 H, 6 BB), 11 K, .267 BAA
Season MILB - 58 IP, 4.97 era, 1.51 whip (60 H, 28 BB), 61 K, .262 BAA, 12 HR, .74 GB/FB
Season MLB - 55 IP, 4.91 era, 1.47 whip (60 H, 28 BB), 29 K, .251 BAA, 7 HR, .65 GB/FB
Chris Leroux
Season - 42.1 IP, 3.19 era, 1.29 whip (42 H, 13 BB), 36 K, .259 BAA, -0- HR
Brad Stone
Season AA - 27 IP, 2.00 era, 1.03 whip (27 H, 1 BB), 16 K, .255 BAA
Grant Parcell
Season - 16.2 IP, .54 era, 1.14 whip (8 H, 11 BB), 17 K, .138 BAA
DL - Winters, Ceda, and Owens
So the quick wrap up. We lost our 2nd best lefty at the A+/AA/AAA levels with Thompson for Nick Johnson, but it’s not a huge loss. Graham Taylor has forgotten how to pitch since getting his ass handed to him in the bigs. Christian Martinez is down to earth and proving to be an organizational arm and nothing more. West has been consistently awful all year. I hope this is a byproduct of working intensely on offspeed pitches, because his FB rates have doubled (last year 1.40), and he’s giving up a lot more HR. Leroux has been up and down and having a solid year. Stone has jumped around a few levels, but has settled in nicely in Jax. A little old, but can’t argue with that control. Parcell is a sleeper RP prospect back from injury. The rust is to be expected a little bit, see those walks, but that’s a nice first 16.2 innings back from the shelf.
JUPITER (A+)
Alejandro Sanabia SP
July - 27.1 IP, 4.28 era, 1.28 whip (22 H, 13 BB), 15 K, .227 BAA
Season - 104.1 IP, 3.45 era, 1.20 whip (89 H, 36 BB), 68 K, .231 BAA, .87 GB/FB
Kris Harvey
Season - 56.1 IP, 3.83 era, 1.35 whip (50 H, 26 BB), 46 K, .235 BAA
July - Really ugly, 8+ era month
Steve Cishek
Season - 54 IP, 2.83 era, .87 whip (34 H, 13 BB), 43 K, .181 BAA, 1.97 GB/FB
Slowing down a little bit, 3.50 era over 28 IP June-July
Elih Villanueva SP
Season as SP - 126.2 IP, 2.98 era, 1.06 whip (122 H, 13 BB), 87 K, .252 BAA
Jeff Allison SP
Season as SP - 109.1 IP, 3.87 era, 1.31 whip (119 H, 25 BB), 56 K, .275 BAA
Jose Rosario SP
Season A+ - 94 IP, 2.68 era, .93 whip (66 H, 22 BB), 80 K, .195 BAA
Brett Harker SP/RP
Season A+ - 76.1 IP, 2.59 era, 1.06 whip (66 H, 15 BB), 40 K, .232 BAA
Sanabia had an OK month. I’d like to see more whiffs and more groundballs, but he’s still having a nice ‘breakout’ year and is easily one of our top 5 pitching prospects at this time. Harvey has finally hit the learning curve wall and got lit up the last month. Still, an incredible transition to a RP and maybe he has a true breakout performance next year. Cishek as I said, slowing down a bit, but he’s getting 2-1 groundballs and missing some bats. He and Parcell are probably the two sneaky future bullpen candidates we have. As for the other four, they should count their blessings they pitch in Jupiter. What a pitcher’s park.
GBO (A)
Kyle Kaminska SP
July - 33 IP, 2.73 era, 1.15 whip (31 H, 7 BB), 17 K, .252 BAA
Season - 117 IP, 3.46 era, 1.30 whip (119 H, 34 BB), 88 K, .264 BAA, .87 GB/FB
Brad Hand SP
July - 30.1 IP, 4.15 era, 1.68 whip (45 H, 16 BB), 35 K, .299 BAA
May thru July - 81 IP, 4.33 era, 1.58 whip (91 H, 37 BB), 72 K, 8 HR
Pete Andrelczyk RP
Season - 53.1 IP, 2.36 era, 1.18 whip (50 H, 13 BB), 66 K, .244 BAA
Dan Jennings RP
Season - 46.1 IP, 2.91 era, 1.31 whip (41 H, 20 BB), 50 K, .244 BAA
Kaminska has really been killing people for 2 months now. His June line was very similar to his July line. It’s important to note how much of a launching pad GBO in, so any success here is very notable. Kaminska is poised for a big breakout in Jupiter next. Hand, and I am being very generous erasing his April which we will not speak of, has been OK all year. The walks are a major problem, but he’s striking out some guys and as he grows you’d hope he starts giving up less hits. Andrelczyk, and Jennings (whose a lefty) have been killing people all year out of the pen. There have also been a few other solid performances (Dorn 3.69 era/1.28 whip, Koehler 2.96 era/1.31 whip, Todd 3.00 era/1.04 whip), but these things take me awhile and I can’t cover every college guy dominating 19 year olds in A ball.
Jamestown (A-) and GCL Marlins (R)
To young to really track, but Sandy Rosario 42.1 IP/1.70 era/41 K, Stephen Richards (who is the one name I do know, he is a lefty reliever from Arkansas) 10.1 IP/2.61 era/10K, and Curtis Petersen 38 IP/4.03 era/29 K are throwing solid in Jamestown, and a bunch of guys (Estevez, Sprague, Eskew, Topp, Morales, Hernandez, Chirinos) are dominating the GCL. Your guess is as good as mine to whether these guys hold up at future levels, but it’s safe to say all of these names are 4-5 years away if any of them pan out into legitimate prospects.
Ryan Tucker
Start 1 - 5 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 5 BB, 3 K
Start 2 - 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K
Pitched 2 games for the GCL. Slowly coming back.
First and Second round picks in 2009, James and Berglund, are not pitching. Or even signed.
NOLA (AAA)
Brett Sinkbeil RP
Season as Reliever - 30 IP, 3.90 era, 1.60 whip (33 H, 15 BB), 18 K, .289 BAA
Hayden Penn SP/RP
July - 22.1 IP, 7.66 era, 1.88 whip (31 H, 11 BB), 16 K, .337 BAA
Tim Wood RP
Season - 32.1 IP, 2.51 era, 1.36 whip (31 H, 13 BB), 28 K, .248 BAA
Andrew Miller SP
has been absolutely obliterated for 10 ER in 5.2 IP since being sent down.
Chris Mobley RP
Season - 41.2 IP, 3.24 era, 1.29 whip (47 H, 7 BB), 33 K, .283 BAA
So the quick wrap up. It’s looking like a real smart idea of putting Wood on the 40 man and protecting him from the Rule5 draft as he is turning in a quality season (whip is a little high, but whatever) between AAA/MLB levels. Penn is still horrific. Miller who the hell knows (and now he's hurt his ankle fielding a come backer). Mobley continues to put up solid numbers at every level. He probably won’t ever really see time with the Marlins as we have better RP prospects, but he has excellent control, decent GB rates (historically anyways), and could be a 4th or 5th righty out of the bullpen in a year or two. At least Sink is doing SOMETHING.
Jax (AA)
Aaron Thompson - Traded for Nick Johnson (Good trade, hopefully Thompson gets a Sept callup in DC)
Christian Martinez SP/RP
July - 36 IP, 5.00 era, 1.44 whip (44 H, 8 BB), 18 K, .308 BAA
Graham Taylor SP
July - 20 IP, 8.10 era... and I don’t need to type the rest
Sean West
July - 15.1 IP, 5.28 era, 1.43 whip (16 H, 6 BB), 11 K, .267 BAA
Season MILB - 58 IP, 4.97 era, 1.51 whip (60 H, 28 BB), 61 K, .262 BAA, 12 HR, .74 GB/FB
Season MLB - 55 IP, 4.91 era, 1.47 whip (60 H, 28 BB), 29 K, .251 BAA, 7 HR, .65 GB/FB
Chris Leroux
Season - 42.1 IP, 3.19 era, 1.29 whip (42 H, 13 BB), 36 K, .259 BAA, -0- HR
Brad Stone
Season AA - 27 IP, 2.00 era, 1.03 whip (27 H, 1 BB), 16 K, .255 BAA
Grant Parcell
Season - 16.2 IP, .54 era, 1.14 whip (8 H, 11 BB), 17 K, .138 BAA
DL - Winters, Ceda, and Owens
So the quick wrap up. We lost our 2nd best lefty at the A+/AA/AAA levels with Thompson for Nick Johnson, but it’s not a huge loss. Graham Taylor has forgotten how to pitch since getting his ass handed to him in the bigs. Christian Martinez is down to earth and proving to be an organizational arm and nothing more. West has been consistently awful all year. I hope this is a byproduct of working intensely on offspeed pitches, because his FB rates have doubled (last year 1.40), and he’s giving up a lot more HR. Leroux has been up and down and having a solid year. Stone has jumped around a few levels, but has settled in nicely in Jax. A little old, but can’t argue with that control. Parcell is a sleeper RP prospect back from injury. The rust is to be expected a little bit, see those walks, but that’s a nice first 16.2 innings back from the shelf.
JUPITER (A+)
Alejandro Sanabia SP
July - 27.1 IP, 4.28 era, 1.28 whip (22 H, 13 BB), 15 K, .227 BAA
Season - 104.1 IP, 3.45 era, 1.20 whip (89 H, 36 BB), 68 K, .231 BAA, .87 GB/FB
Kris Harvey
Season - 56.1 IP, 3.83 era, 1.35 whip (50 H, 26 BB), 46 K, .235 BAA
July - Really ugly, 8+ era month
Steve Cishek
Season - 54 IP, 2.83 era, .87 whip (34 H, 13 BB), 43 K, .181 BAA, 1.97 GB/FB
Slowing down a little bit, 3.50 era over 28 IP June-July
Elih Villanueva SP
Season as SP - 126.2 IP, 2.98 era, 1.06 whip (122 H, 13 BB), 87 K, .252 BAA
Jeff Allison SP
Season as SP - 109.1 IP, 3.87 era, 1.31 whip (119 H, 25 BB), 56 K, .275 BAA
Jose Rosario SP
Season A+ - 94 IP, 2.68 era, .93 whip (66 H, 22 BB), 80 K, .195 BAA
Brett Harker SP/RP
Season A+ - 76.1 IP, 2.59 era, 1.06 whip (66 H, 15 BB), 40 K, .232 BAA
Sanabia had an OK month. I’d like to see more whiffs and more groundballs, but he’s still having a nice ‘breakout’ year and is easily one of our top 5 pitching prospects at this time. Harvey has finally hit the learning curve wall and got lit up the last month. Still, an incredible transition to a RP and maybe he has a true breakout performance next year. Cishek as I said, slowing down a bit, but he’s getting 2-1 groundballs and missing some bats. He and Parcell are probably the two sneaky future bullpen candidates we have. As for the other four, they should count their blessings they pitch in Jupiter. What a pitcher’s park.
GBO (A)
Kyle Kaminska SP
July - 33 IP, 2.73 era, 1.15 whip (31 H, 7 BB), 17 K, .252 BAA
Season - 117 IP, 3.46 era, 1.30 whip (119 H, 34 BB), 88 K, .264 BAA, .87 GB/FB
Brad Hand SP
July - 30.1 IP, 4.15 era, 1.68 whip (45 H, 16 BB), 35 K, .299 BAA
May thru July - 81 IP, 4.33 era, 1.58 whip (91 H, 37 BB), 72 K, 8 HR
Pete Andrelczyk RP
Season - 53.1 IP, 2.36 era, 1.18 whip (50 H, 13 BB), 66 K, .244 BAA
Dan Jennings RP
Season - 46.1 IP, 2.91 era, 1.31 whip (41 H, 20 BB), 50 K, .244 BAA
Kaminska has really been killing people for 2 months now. His June line was very similar to his July line. It’s important to note how much of a launching pad GBO in, so any success here is very notable. Kaminska is poised for a big breakout in Jupiter next. Hand, and I am being very generous erasing his April which we will not speak of, has been OK all year. The walks are a major problem, but he’s striking out some guys and as he grows you’d hope he starts giving up less hits. Andrelczyk, and Jennings (whose a lefty) have been killing people all year out of the pen. There have also been a few other solid performances (Dorn 3.69 era/1.28 whip, Koehler 2.96 era/1.31 whip, Todd 3.00 era/1.04 whip), but these things take me awhile and I can’t cover every college guy dominating 19 year olds in A ball.
Jamestown (A-) and GCL Marlins (R)
To young to really track, but Sandy Rosario 42.1 IP/1.70 era/41 K, Stephen Richards (who is the one name I do know, he is a lefty reliever from Arkansas) 10.1 IP/2.61 era/10K, and Curtis Petersen 38 IP/4.03 era/29 K are throwing solid in Jamestown, and a bunch of guys (Estevez, Sprague, Eskew, Topp, Morales, Hernandez, Chirinos) are dominating the GCL. Your guess is as good as mine to whether these guys hold up at future levels, but it’s safe to say all of these names are 4-5 years away if any of them pan out into legitimate prospects.
Ryan Tucker
Start 1 - 5 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 5 BB, 3 K
Start 2 - 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K
Pitched 2 games for the GCL. Slowly coming back.
First and Second round picks in 2009, James and Berglund, are not pitching. Or even signed.
Monday, August 3, 2009
Marlins promote Matt Dominguez to AA
The Marlins officially put Matt Dominguez on the fast track by calling up the 3b prospect to AA Jacksonville, just 381 at bats into his Jupiter stay.
With the Hammerheads, he was hitting .262/.333/.420 with 11hr 38bb and 68k
Pre All Star splits: .250/.301/.373 in 236ab
Post: 283/.382/.497 in 145ab
Preseason Scouting Report:
The Marlins selected third baseman Matt Dominguez with the 12th pick in the 2007 amateur drafted. Drafted out of the same high school that produced number two overall pick Mike Moustakas, Dominguez was signed to a $1.8mil bonus. Matt entered the season competing for top prospect honors in Southern California, especially after leading USA Baseball's junior national team with two homers and 11 RBIs in last year's World Junior Championship. He has drawn comparisons to Mike Lowell and Eric Chavez, but the one you hear the most is that of Nationals 3b Ryan Zimmerman. His glove his major league ready and he has a strong, accurate arm over at the hotcorner. He shows good torque on his swing and is mostly a gap to gap hitter at this point. As he grows older and matures physically, those doubles should turn into homeruns.
In his first season, it was hard to take anything of note from Matt's 57 at bats between the Gulf Coast League and Jamestown. Even with the strikeouts early on, scouts still believe he will have above average strikezone judgment eventually. His season this year in Greensboro was a major leap forward for the 19 year old. He hit .296/.354/.499 in 345 at bats and hit 18 homeruns. His season started off a bit late because he had to deal with mono in the beginning of the season.
Matt’s smooth stroke will allow him to hit for both power and average. He's a smart baserunner as well. He has a great work ethic and scouts love his makeup both on and off the field. Like many Marlins prospects, Jupiter is going to be much tougher for him hitting-wise than Greensboro was. The Florida State League is a notorious pitchers’ league but if he can hold his own with the bat, he’ll continue to stay on the quick track for a starting spot in 2011.
Sunday, August 2, 2009
July Roundup: Hitting Prospects
analysis c/o lou over at SoFlaMarlins.com
NOLA (AAA)
Cameron Maybin CF
July - 103 AB, .320/.403/.485 (.889), 2 HR, 15/24 BB/K, 2/0 SB
Season - 244 AB, .328/.415/.471 (.886), 3 HR, 34/47 BB/K, 7/2 SB
Gaby Sanchez 1B/3B
July - 61 AB, .246/.310/.377 (.687), 2 HR, 6/6 BB/K, 2/0 SB
Season 234 AB, .282/.353/.436 (.789), 9 HR, 25/38 BB/K, 5/0 SB
Brett Hayes C
July - 75 AB, .242/.263/.360 (.623), 2 HR, 3/13 BB/K
Season - 255 AB, .255/.291/.345 (.636), 3 HR, 14/62 BB/K, 2/0 SB
Jai Miller CF
July - 70 AB, .300/.351/.557 (.908), 5 HR, 6/22 BB/K, 1/0 SB
Season - 235 AB, .289/.352/.498 (.950), 9 HR, 24/66 BB/K, 6/3 SB
vs LHP 6 HR, 1.112 OPS, vs RHP 3 HR .725 OPS
John Raynor LF/RF
July - 77 AB, .221/.333/.286 (.619), 1 HR, 13/31 BB/K, 6/1 SB
Season - 342 AB, .243/.308/.333 (.641), 4 HR, 29/97 BB/K, 14/6 SB
So business as usual. Maybin isn’t hitting for much HR power, but has an excellent average, BB rate, and the K rate is much improved from last year. It’s just a question of when he comes up at this point. In other threads, I have detailed his future arbitration status which may be of importance here. Basically, if the Marlins call up Maybin now, he will be a Super2 in 2012 and the Marlins will be on the hook for an extra $2-3 million in salary. If the Marlins call him up around August 20th, take maybe a week or so, Maybin will probably not be a Super2 and the Marlins will have Maybin club controlled 2010-2012. Kind of a big deal. If the Marlins don’t ‘need’ him for the playoff push, he should stay down for a few more weeks just to preserve his status.
Gaby had a bad July, but he was up with the Marlins for a bit explaining the low PA. I kind of feel that Gaby’s current minor league line is what he’d be doing in the big leagues. And I’m more than happy with that for a few club controlled years. Jai is really smashing lefties, but still can’t be considered much of a prospect since he can’t hit RHP. Jai is out of options after this year, so I’d suspect he is out of the organization in March unless he wins a job on the big league roster somehow. Hayes and Raynor are just brutal and will surely repeat AAA.
JAX (AA)
Bryan Petersen RF
July - 54 AB, .315/.373/.500 (.873), 2 HR, 4/8 BB/K, 1/1 SB
Season - 315 AB, .292/.365/.394 (.759), 4 HR, 37/60 BB/K, 11/7 SB
vs LHP 0 HR, .605 OPS. vs RHP, 4 HR, .797 OPS
Logan Morrison 1B/LF
July - 83 AB, .313/.500/.554 (1.054), 5 HR, 31/15 BB/K (not a typo), 3/0 SB
Season - 161 AB, .267/.430/.466 (.896), 7 HR, 46/26 BB/K, 4/1 SB
Mike Stanton RF
July - 94 AB, .277/.349/.596 (.945), 7 HR, 7/32 BB/K, 1/0 SB
Season AA - 180 AB, .244/.330/.483 (.813), 10 HR, 18/60 BB/K, 1/1 SB
Season A+ - 180 AB, .294/.390/.578 (.968), 12 HR, 28/45 BB/K, 2/2 SB
Scott Cousins CF
July - 100 AB, .260/.299/.460 (.759), 2 HR, 6/23 BB/K, 5/0 SB
Season - 374 AB, .257/.317/.428 (.745), 9 HR, 32/80 BB/K, 22/5 SB
Morrison. Is. Retarded. At this point, we may have to pencil him into the starting lineup in April 2010, whether it’s 1B or LF. Average, Contact, BBs, Power. Full package right there. Stanton is holding his own in AA overall, and was much improved in July. You’d like to see a few less strikeouts, but I’m really happy he’s not being dominated. Plate recognition will probably improve as he ages, so he just needs to keep at it. If he can hit .260 in the bigs, he’s probably going to be a star with that power and BB potential. If Petersen can start hitting for power, he’s going to start looking real good with that avg/bb potential. Especially against right handers. And Cousins hit a lot of 2B/3B this month to explain the slugging, but he should probably repeat AA next year. Petersen should move up as he is a college player.
Jupiter (A+)
Matt Dominguez 3B
July - 102 AB, .314/.410/.569 (.978), 6 HR, 16/16 BB/K
Season - 381 AB, .262/.333/.420 (.753), 11 HR, 38/68 BB/K, 1 SB
Not really any other major hitting prospects in Jupiter, but boy has Dominguez turned it on. April .681 OPS, May .513 OPS, June .826 OPS, and now July. Season line is nothing to write about, but he’s been on a tear the last two months. One more good month, and we have to look at this as a highly successful season for Jupiter.
Greensboro (A)
Isaac Galloway CF
July - 100 AB, .240/.255/.310 (.565 OPS), 1/23 BB/K, 3/2 SB
Season - 224 AB, .262/.293/.378 (.671), 2 HR, 9/59 BB/K, 11/6 SB
Jake Smolinski 2B
July - 81 AB, .259/.348/.407 (.755), 1 HR, 10/11 BB/K, 0/2 SB
Season - 226 AB, .261/.365/.429 (.794), 7 HR, 34/38 BB/K, 2/5 SB
Kyle Skipworth C
July - 58 AB, .224/.262/.328 (.590), 1 HR, 2/26 BB/K, 0/1 SB
Season - 250 AB, .204/.257/.324 (.581), 5 HR, 16/87 BB/K, 1/2 SB
Not much positive to say. Smolinski has a nice walk rate. Skip and Galloway brutal.
Jamestown (A-)
No one of particular interest at this time. If someone wants to fill something in, feel free. But no major hitting prospects, and the international signings are not hitting.
GCL Marlins (R)
Marcell Ozuna, RF
July - 96 AB, .396/.443/.646 (1.089), 3 HR, 8/19 BB/K, 1/1 SB
Season - 133 AB, .346/.393/.556 (.949), 4 HR, 9/28 BB/K, 2/1 SB
vs LHP .545 OPS, vs RHP 1.134 OPS.
Ozuna played in the Dominican league last year as an international signing. He did ok for a 17 year old, hitting .279/.335/.416 (.751). Now, he’s really hitting the ball hard. It’s not unusual to struggle against lefties at a young age, but I note it just to show how hard he’s hitting right handers. Scouting reports are thin, but he is turning into a prospect of interest.
And Hickman is back playing in the GCL. Only a few games, we'll see if he is still striking out at an astronomical pace.
NOLA (AAA)
Cameron Maybin CF
July - 103 AB, .320/.403/.485 (.889), 2 HR, 15/24 BB/K, 2/0 SB
Season - 244 AB, .328/.415/.471 (.886), 3 HR, 34/47 BB/K, 7/2 SB
Gaby Sanchez 1B/3B
July - 61 AB, .246/.310/.377 (.687), 2 HR, 6/6 BB/K, 2/0 SB
Season 234 AB, .282/.353/.436 (.789), 9 HR, 25/38 BB/K, 5/0 SB
Brett Hayes C
July - 75 AB, .242/.263/.360 (.623), 2 HR, 3/13 BB/K
Season - 255 AB, .255/.291/.345 (.636), 3 HR, 14/62 BB/K, 2/0 SB
Jai Miller CF
July - 70 AB, .300/.351/.557 (.908), 5 HR, 6/22 BB/K, 1/0 SB
Season - 235 AB, .289/.352/.498 (.950), 9 HR, 24/66 BB/K, 6/3 SB
vs LHP 6 HR, 1.112 OPS, vs RHP 3 HR .725 OPS
John Raynor LF/RF
July - 77 AB, .221/.333/.286 (.619), 1 HR, 13/31 BB/K, 6/1 SB
Season - 342 AB, .243/.308/.333 (.641), 4 HR, 29/97 BB/K, 14/6 SB
So business as usual. Maybin isn’t hitting for much HR power, but has an excellent average, BB rate, and the K rate is much improved from last year. It’s just a question of when he comes up at this point. In other threads, I have detailed his future arbitration status which may be of importance here. Basically, if the Marlins call up Maybin now, he will be a Super2 in 2012 and the Marlins will be on the hook for an extra $2-3 million in salary. If the Marlins call him up around August 20th, take maybe a week or so, Maybin will probably not be a Super2 and the Marlins will have Maybin club controlled 2010-2012. Kind of a big deal. If the Marlins don’t ‘need’ him for the playoff push, he should stay down for a few more weeks just to preserve his status.
Gaby had a bad July, but he was up with the Marlins for a bit explaining the low PA. I kind of feel that Gaby’s current minor league line is what he’d be doing in the big leagues. And I’m more than happy with that for a few club controlled years. Jai is really smashing lefties, but still can’t be considered much of a prospect since he can’t hit RHP. Jai is out of options after this year, so I’d suspect he is out of the organization in March unless he wins a job on the big league roster somehow. Hayes and Raynor are just brutal and will surely repeat AAA.
JAX (AA)
Bryan Petersen RF
July - 54 AB, .315/.373/.500 (.873), 2 HR, 4/8 BB/K, 1/1 SB
Season - 315 AB, .292/.365/.394 (.759), 4 HR, 37/60 BB/K, 11/7 SB
vs LHP 0 HR, .605 OPS. vs RHP, 4 HR, .797 OPS
Logan Morrison 1B/LF
July - 83 AB, .313/.500/.554 (1.054), 5 HR, 31/15 BB/K (not a typo), 3/0 SB
Season - 161 AB, .267/.430/.466 (.896), 7 HR, 46/26 BB/K, 4/1 SB
Mike Stanton RF
July - 94 AB, .277/.349/.596 (.945), 7 HR, 7/32 BB/K, 1/0 SB
Season AA - 180 AB, .244/.330/.483 (.813), 10 HR, 18/60 BB/K, 1/1 SB
Season A+ - 180 AB, .294/.390/.578 (.968), 12 HR, 28/45 BB/K, 2/2 SB
Scott Cousins CF
July - 100 AB, .260/.299/.460 (.759), 2 HR, 6/23 BB/K, 5/0 SB
Season - 374 AB, .257/.317/.428 (.745), 9 HR, 32/80 BB/K, 22/5 SB
Morrison. Is. Retarded. At this point, we may have to pencil him into the starting lineup in April 2010, whether it’s 1B or LF. Average, Contact, BBs, Power. Full package right there. Stanton is holding his own in AA overall, and was much improved in July. You’d like to see a few less strikeouts, but I’m really happy he’s not being dominated. Plate recognition will probably improve as he ages, so he just needs to keep at it. If he can hit .260 in the bigs, he’s probably going to be a star with that power and BB potential. If Petersen can start hitting for power, he’s going to start looking real good with that avg/bb potential. Especially against right handers. And Cousins hit a lot of 2B/3B this month to explain the slugging, but he should probably repeat AA next year. Petersen should move up as he is a college player.
Jupiter (A+)
Matt Dominguez 3B
July - 102 AB, .314/.410/.569 (.978), 6 HR, 16/16 BB/K
Season - 381 AB, .262/.333/.420 (.753), 11 HR, 38/68 BB/K, 1 SB
Not really any other major hitting prospects in Jupiter, but boy has Dominguez turned it on. April .681 OPS, May .513 OPS, June .826 OPS, and now July. Season line is nothing to write about, but he’s been on a tear the last two months. One more good month, and we have to look at this as a highly successful season for Jupiter.
Greensboro (A)
Isaac Galloway CF
July - 100 AB, .240/.255/.310 (.565 OPS), 1/23 BB/K, 3/2 SB
Season - 224 AB, .262/.293/.378 (.671), 2 HR, 9/59 BB/K, 11/6 SB
Jake Smolinski 2B
July - 81 AB, .259/.348/.407 (.755), 1 HR, 10/11 BB/K, 0/2 SB
Season - 226 AB, .261/.365/.429 (.794), 7 HR, 34/38 BB/K, 2/5 SB
Kyle Skipworth C
July - 58 AB, .224/.262/.328 (.590), 1 HR, 2/26 BB/K, 0/1 SB
Season - 250 AB, .204/.257/.324 (.581), 5 HR, 16/87 BB/K, 1/2 SB
Not much positive to say. Smolinski has a nice walk rate. Skip and Galloway brutal.
Jamestown (A-)
No one of particular interest at this time. If someone wants to fill something in, feel free. But no major hitting prospects, and the international signings are not hitting.
GCL Marlins (R)
Marcell Ozuna, RF
July - 96 AB, .396/.443/.646 (1.089), 3 HR, 8/19 BB/K, 1/1 SB
Season - 133 AB, .346/.393/.556 (.949), 4 HR, 9/28 BB/K, 2/1 SB
vs LHP .545 OPS, vs RHP 1.134 OPS.
Ozuna played in the Dominican league last year as an international signing. He did ok for a 17 year old, hitting .279/.335/.416 (.751). Now, he’s really hitting the ball hard. It’s not unusual to struggle against lefties at a young age, but I note it just to show how hard he’s hitting right handers. Scouting reports are thin, but he is turning into a prospect of interest.
And Hickman is back playing in the GCL. Only a few games, we'll see if he is still striking out at an astronomical pace.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
